The Undercover Pro: I cashed seven winning bets last year. Here's how

I'm on the range at dozens of PGA Tour events per yearworking with my clients. I’m also the anonymous tour coach in the experts picks column onGolfDigest.com. For that gambling column, we make two outright picks per week, and I cashed seven winners last year. I predicted McIlroy winning the Players at 12-to-1 odds (meaning if you put $100 on it, you won $1,200) and the Masters (+650 odds). I also hit three of Scheffler’s wins. Scheffler was usually a heavy favorite, so that wasn’t going on a limb, but I also hit Ben Griffin and Aldrich Potgieter raising trophies.

In 2025, Scheffler and McIlroy had stretches of golf that were as good as we’ve seen since Tiger Woods. Also, their competition was lacking. I was more confident picking the big guns when the likes of Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay were having off years. LIV players like Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau also weren’t there to challenge Scheffler and McIlroy on a weekly basis. With fewer players in these signature events, elite players can separate themselves, and it’s been easier than ever to pick winners.

If you’re a casual PGA Tour fan, you know certain courses favor certain statistical profiles. Harbour Town rewards driving accuracy. I picked Potgieter at 125-1 odds at the Rocket Classic because Detroit Golf Club is a bomber’s paradise. After seeing him contend in Mexico, play well at Torrey Pines and then watching his work with swing instructor Justin Parsons on social media go so well, I had a feeling the strong South African rookie was due.

Here was my write-up on Potgeiter at the time:

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You can also glean a lot from watching coverage and reading a player’s reaction to shots. If a golfer is hitting approaches pin high but just not getting putts to drop, and he doesn’t look super pissed off, you might bet on him the next few weeks. Field strength matters, too. Ben Griffin at 14-1 was my pick in Mexico. He had played well the month prior at the Ryder Cup and had been a top-10 player all year. He was the best player in the field, and the odds should’ve been shorter.

Yes, I’m coaching my players when I’m on the range, but I’m also paying attention to other interactions. When another coach and a pro aren’t meshing, it’s tough not to notice. Tensions get high because the stakes are high. I remember watching Collin Morikawa and Rick Sessinghaus go at it before a few big events last year. Unsurprisingly, Morikawa wasn’t himself. I faded him in matchups in theGolfDigest.comcolumn, which means picking another top player to beat him in a 72-hole bet. You can do this, too. Especially during majors, TV broadcasts often show hours of content from the range. Watch carefully if a player seems frustrated. It’s how I often find my edge.

Big changes are often a major tell. If someone makes a caddie or coaching change, even if it’s a good long-term decision, most times panic is powering the decision, so the player will have at least a month of adjustment. Max Homa rifled through swing coaches and caddies last year. He was searching. We faded him successfully in the betting column.

Juicy stuff like divorces are huge things to utilize, although it’s rare to get that info before it’s already very public. Most of these young kids are pretty boring these days.

Being on tour often helps me to evaluate a player’s headspace. These guys are creatures of habit. If a player is early or on-time for his workouts, he’s smiling during range sessions and practice rounds, and everything seems stress-free, it’s probably because it is. If somebody is changing his schedule all week, that means he’s struggling to adjust to something. You’ll see young players have difficulty with scheduling after wins when more responsibilities come their way. Matthew Wolff comes to mind. I think that’s a big reason he jumped at LIV and the freedom he’d have.

Consider 2024. McIlroy wasn’t quite himself after his temporary separation from his wife became news. We faded him every chance we got. If a player is distracted, most can’t overcome it. Tiger, it seemed, thrived on chaos. Once Rory figured out his family situation and recused himself from the PGA Tour battle against LIV, he focused on golf. That led to me betting on him for two of his first three victories in 2025.

Who will win majors next year? McIlroy seems freed up, so I’d expect him to pick off another, possibly Aronimink for the PGA or Royal Birkdale for the Open. Scheffler will want revenge at Augusta after struggling this year. Otherwise, two players who got the monkey off their backs in 2025 are Cameron Young and Tommy Fleetwood. Young will use his first tour victory at the Wyndham to propel him to big things. The way he drives the ball is such an asset in major championships. He also played well at the Ryder Cup, so he’ll have a ton of confidence in 2026. Aronimink could set up well for him, too, as he is a Northeast guy. Capturing the FedEx Cup was a statement win for Fleetwood, whose game has no flaws. He played well at Shinnecock in 2018. If he can bring that same confidence to 2026 that he had in 2025, perhaps the U.S. Open will be his time. Always study the headspaces.

Make sure to check GolfDigest.com for our anonymous tour coach's picks this week for the Sony Open.

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