Let’s talk projections!
We haven’t really had a chance to talk about it on the site, but last week, FanGraph’s Dan Szymborski dropped his projections for the 2026 Colorado Rockies. You may read them here.
You will not be surprised to learn that ZiPS is not especially optimistic about the Rockies as they head into the season.
Here’s an excerpt from the hitting section:
I swear that ZiPS isn’t intentionally trolling with Ian Desmond as one of Ezequiel Tovar’s top three offensive comps. Desmond really was a valuable offensive player for a good four- to five-year period, and Tovar is the better defensive player. ZiPS also expects center fielder Brenton Doyle to have somewhat of a bounceback season. Catcher Hunter Goodman is a real hitter, and ZiPS is kind of taken with his tandem-mate, Braxton Fulford. Completing the group up the middle is Adael Amador. ZiPS is a great deal less excited about the second baseman, but at least we’re talking about a player who has yet to turn 23 and has cognizable upside.
The rest of the offense is rather bleak. ZiPS isn’t sure about Kyle Karros’s bat, but it does have him as the second-best minor league third baseman defensively over the last two seasons, behind only Ben Williamson. ZiPS sees little upside at the other corners, and I don’t think even the Rockies are holding out much hope for a Kris Bryant comeback.
And the starting rotation:
I’m not sure it’s a good sign that ZiPS sees the Rockies’ second-most valuable pitcher being Konner Eaton, a 2024 sixth-rounder who is not really on anyone’s prospect radar and who has barely pitched in Double-A ball. Outside of possible upside from Chase Dollander, and a belief that Sean Sullivan could develop into a decent mid-rotation option, ZiPS doesn’t think there’s much coming in the near future. The team’s best pitching prospects are probably guys like Brody Brecht, JB Middleton, and Griffin Herring, all of whom were too low in the minors for ZiPS to give an “official” projection. Colorado’s best hope here is that Kyle Freeland can soak up 180 innings or so, and that some of the “throw against the wall and see what sticks” options work out.
And the bullpen does not fare much better.
That said, I’m a big fan of Szymborski’s work, and he understands the Rockies in way few people do.
But for the Purple Row night owls, I thought it might be interesting to take a deeper dive into ZiPS’ projections.
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Category: General Sports
