Somehow, Bracketologists Are Undervaluing Duke

Projecting the NCAA Tournament Bracket before March is a fool’s errand—a necessary caveat before embarking on any discussion of “bracketology.” And yet, projecting the bracket dominates the conversation amongst college basketball fans all year round (yes, there are even “Way Too Early” projected brackets in the offseason now!), so it’s impossible to ignore. These discussions set the national storylines about each team which could even influence the only bracket that actually matters—the one released Selection Sunday.

With all that in mind, it has to be said: if the season ended today, Duke would more than likely be a 1 seed, not the 2 that is the bracketology community’s consensus.

Entering it’s West Coast trip, Duke has 7 Q1 wins—two more than any other team. Given the Selection Committee’s consistent emphasis on these top-tier victories, it seems a major oversight not to slot a one-loss team with the most Q1 victories in as a No. 1 seed. Were Duke to end the year with this distinction—a real possibility given the significant improvements in the ACC that have 10 more projected Q1 opportunities on the board for the Blue Devils—it would be unprecedented for Duke to not be on the top line.

As it stands, most prognosticators have the Blue Devils behind UConn as the fourth No. 1 seed, and a tier below Arizona, Iowa State, and Michigan. The Huskies are certainly one of the few teams that can compete with Duke in terms of quality non-conference wins. But the Big East is arguably worse this year than the ACC was last year, leaving the Huskies’ resume inferior to Duke’s both currently (5 Q1 wins) and likely into the future (UConn has only 6 projected Q1 games remaining).

Perhaps bracketologists are buying into the “eye test” and knocking Duke down for its subpar efforts over the past month. But UConn hasn’t looked any better: over their last three games they required a massive comeback and overtime to defeat a disappointing Providence squad, couldn’t put away a very poor DePaul team, and nearly blew a double digit lead against the good (but surprising) Seton Hall Pirates. UConn is actually below Duke both in the NCAA’s NET rankings as well as Ken Pomeroy’s rankings.

After Iowa State’s loss last night, you could even argue Duke should jump the Cyclones in the pecking order. Despite a hugely impressive victory over Purdue on the road, Iowa State has just four total Q1 wins, with each of the remaining three arguably less impressive than any of Duke’s (excluding perhaps the Blue Devils’ neutral site win over Texas). With the zero in the loss column gone, the Cyclones also fell below the Blue Devils in the NET.

Does any of this matter today, in mid-January? Probably not. Duke will be a 1 seed in March if it handles business in the ACC, particularly given the conference’s newfound strength, while the Big 12 will beat up on itself until a true leader emerges. And yet, the Selection Committee is made up of humans, who are influenced by perception. If the perception of Duke remains that they’re a step below the Top 4 nationally, even when the metrics beg to differ, it’s not outlandish to think that could influence Selection Sunday.

Don’t believe me? Just ask: how did North Carolina make the tournament last year?