Bills vs Broncos prediction, players who could decide playoff clash

ORCHARD PARK - Wily veteran coach that he is, Sean Payton spent part of his media availability downplaying the advantages many believe his Denver Broncos will have in their AFC divisional round showdown against the Buffalo Bills.

Payton called them “myths,” probably as a not-so-subtle message to his team to make sure they stay on task and not get too full of themselves after earning the all-important and coveted No. 1 seed in the AFC bracket by winning 14 of 17 regular-season games to end the Kansas City Chiefs’ nine-year stranglehold on the AFC West.

“We talk about earning seeds and trying to get all edges,” Payton said. “Now, there are some myths relative to the playoffs. Homefield is important relative to the crowd noise, but just look at the weekend we just had (where four road teams won the six wildcard games, including Buffalo). I know our crowd will be fantastic. We have to be ready to play our best game.”

Meaning, homefield, where Denver is 8-1 this year, certainly doesn’t guarantee a victory. And neither does the bye week which enabled the Broncos to rest and recuperate while the Bills were playing a hard-hitting game against Jacksonville and incurring more injuries to an already absurdly long list.

“The rest is important, but myth No. 2 is that it ensures the fast start,” Payton said. “It doesn’t. Understand this: We’re playing a team that’s coming off one of their biggest wins in the last 10 years. We have to earn a fast start and take advantage of the energy, take advantage of the rest.”

But regarding the third and final myth he was willing to discuss, the importance of postseason experience, which is something the Bills have in droves over his team, Payton said that’s not as big an issue as it’s often made out to be, which is why he considers it a myth..

His Broncos lost 31-7 to Buffalo last January, which was Denver’s first postseason game since it won the Super Bowl following the 2015 season when Peyton Manning was the quarterback. Most of the key players from that team are back, so they have that experience to draw from, and the moment shouldn’t be too big for them, even against a playoff-hardened team like the Bills.

“Myth No. 3: Postseason experience is important. Obviously (his players last season) played in it,” he said. “Obviously being in that environment, it’s really the week. It ratchets up. It’s different.”

Here’s something that might not be a myth, though: motivation, something the Broncos have in spades after the butt-kicking they absorbed at Highmark Stadium 53 weeks ago, not to mention the fact that as the No. 1 seed, they began the week as a slight underdog at home to the No. 6 seed, thought that flipped on Thursday.

“It could motivate us,’’ said cornerback Patrick Surtain II, the 2024 NFL defensive player of the year and three-time All-Pro. “But we’ve been underdogs (before). We understand what it’s like but none of that matters. We left with a sour taste, that wasn’t the result we wanted (last year against the Bills), but there’s a lot to learn from and take away from that game. We know that we’re a whole completely different team. Last year is in the past. Obviously Buffalo is a great team; it’s not going to be easy. It’s not going to be handed to us.”

Added edge rusher Jonathon Cooper, “Of course I feel like revenge is definitely something people use to their advantage. It’s still sitting with me. I don’t know necessarily if that’s our mindset. I really feel like we’re just going to do what we do well. We’re just not the same team that we were a year ago.”

Here’s my preview of the game:

The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Bo Nix

Allen tried to convince reporters Tuesday that his battered body was all good. “I feel good; I feel good,” he said. “Honestly, I feel better than I have in the last few weeks.” Allen admittedly is a small-town country bumpkin, but most of the rest of us aren't.

I’m not going to call Allen a liar, but come on, dude. If that was his attempt at gamesmanship and getting the Broncos to believe he was fine, they probably laughed until their chests were sore. Unless there’s a healthy clone of Allen who will play this week, it’s not even possible that he’s feeling better than he has the past few weeks, not after suffering head, knee and hand injuries last week, on top of the sore foot he’s been dealing with.

One of the biggest things to watch will be whether Allen can play with the same reckless abandon that has defined his career and led him to become one of the best players in the league. Will he be compromised, and will Joe Brady have to alter the game plan to account for Allen possibly not being able to execute certain things such as designed runs?

Still, we’ve all learned that Allen is superhuman, so while the Broncos know he’s banged up, they’re properly concerned about facing a QB who, in 14 postseason games, has 3,632 passing yards, 701 rushing yards and 36 touchdowns (26 passing, nine rushing, one receiving).

“He’s incredible,’’ Nix said. “He’s the MVP of the league for a reason. He continues to make play after play when sort of the game’s not necessarily looking like he can make the play. He just goes out there and does superhero stuff. I think one of the things that separates him is just his toughness, his ability to go play after play at his maximum velocities, his peak performance.”

Nix has had a very good year and he has overcome some of his inconsistencies with his sterling play in the fourth quarter. He directed seven game-winning drives, which led the league, and his 1,130 yards in the fourth quarter ranked third behind the leader, Allen (1,216) and Dak Prescott (1,178).

Nix led the league in pass attempts with 612 but he absorbed only 22 sacks which is impressive, both regarding his mobility but also his offensive line protecting him. However, his completion percentage wasn’t great at 63.4%, which ranked 24th, and despite all those attempts, he threw only 25 TDs while getting picked 11 times.

“Improved, definitely improved,” Sean McDermott said. “He was good last year. I mean, it’s hard to be good as a rookie, very few are. He was what I thought was one of the few that I’ve been around that you could qualify as good in his rookie year. And obviously, they made the playoffs last year, and then what he’s been able to do this year and the way that they’ve developed him. Coach Payton’s got a history of doing that with quarterbacks.”

Buffalo Bills who should impact the game

▶ RB James Cook: He faced the No. 1 run defense in the NFL last week and it didn’t go well as his 46 yards were his second-lowest total of the season. Now he will be confronted with the No. 2 run defense, but here’s the difference. The Jaguars are bigger up front than the Broncos, so Buffalo’s offensive line should be able to get some push and create gaps for Cook to run through. In the wildcard game last season, Cook had 120 of the Bills’ 210 rushing yards and scored on a five-yard run.

▶ C Connor McGovern: He played a key role in the Bills’ dominant run game last year against Denver, and has been just as good this season. The Bills love to operate between the tackles, but it won’t be easy against a strong Denver DT threesome of Zach Allen, D.J. Jones and Malcolm Roach. Allen is a two-time All-Pro (first-team this year) who led all NFL interior linemen with 73 pressures, turning seven of those into sacks, while Jones is the best run defender on the Broncos’ front line.

▶ LB Matt Milano: If this is the final season for Milano in Buffalo (he’s a free agent), he is going out on a high note, recovering from a slow start to play some of his best football since before he destroyed his leg back in early 2023. One thing to watch is how the Bills set the edge to keep Nix contained in the pocket and Milano will play a part in that while also needing to hold up in coverage when Nix looks to dump off to RB RJ Harvey who was fourth on the team with 47 receptions, or TE Evan Engram (50 catches).

▶ S Cole Bishop: Without Jordan Poyer, there’s a heavy burden on Bishop in the back end. Denver WR Troy Franklin has the ability to hit home runs, but there’s also Engram and WR Courtland Sutton who can work the middle of the field and put stress on the safeties. Regardless of who replaces Poyer -– probably Cam Lewis or Jordan Hancock who was the choice last week and really struggled – Bishop will have a full plate.

Denver Broncos who should impact the game

▶ RB R.J. Harvey: When J.K. Dobbins went down at midseason, the second-round rookie Harvey had to take on the No. 1 RB role, and while he hasn’t been dynamic carrying the ball with a 3.7 average, he has been a weapon in the passing game, providing an easy button outlet for Nix, which is one of the reasons why Nix has avoided so many sacks.

▶ WR Courtland Sutton: The old vet, who is one of two of Denver’s longest-tenured players along with outstanding LT Garrett Bolles, is still getting it done at age 30, as he just had his third 1,000-yard season, doing it on 74 catches with seven TDs, and producing 52 touches that resulted in first downs, all of which led the Broncos. The Bills probably won’t travel Christian Benford with Sutton, but when Sutton is opposite Tre’Davious White, he’ll have 5 inches and 25 pounds on White.

▶ DE: Nik Bonitto: He finished fifth in the league with 14 sacks and tied for eighth in the league with 76 pressures and tied for 11th in pass rush win rate at 17.1%. He lines up exclusively on the right side so he will be Dion Dawkins’ responsibility, and the Bills may look to chip him when they can because what makes him so dangerous is that he’s 240 pounds and lightning quick, so he may be able to beat Dawkins off the snap. In last year’s game, Dawkins held up well as Bonitto played 22 pass rush snaps and had four pressures but no sacks.

▶ LB Alex Singleton: He’s one of the best run-defending LBs in the NFL as he led Denver with 135 tackles, 50 of which were stops, defined as a tackle that caused a failure for the offense. Singleton is a three-down player who is adept at flashing into gaps against the run, but teams have had success when they can find a passing matchup against him as he allowed 50 catches on 61 targets for 468 yards and two TDs per Pro Football Focus charting.

Sal’s prediction: Broncos 26, Bills 23

There’s no reason to believe that the Bills can’t go out to Denver and beat the Broncos. With Allen on their side, anything is possible no matter how many injuries they’re dealing with. I just don’t think it’s going to happen.

Earning the No. 1 seed gave the Broncos a well-earned advantage. Not only did they get a bye last week to rest and recuperate, they’re playing at home, and doing so on a Saturday which means the Bills have to travel two time zones while operating on a short week. That doesn’t seem fair, but the NFL doesn’t care.

Denver’s defense is going to create all kinds of problems for the Bills, and given all the injuries Buffalo is dealing with, it just feels like this is the end of the line for the 2025 season.

Buffalo Bills 2025 schedule

• Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 7 vs. Baltimore Ravens, W 41-40.
• Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 14 at New York Jets, W 30-10.
• Week 3: Thursday, Sept. 18 vs. Miami Dolphins, W 31-21.
• Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 28, vs. New Orleans Saints, W 31-19
• Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 5 vs. New England Patriots, L 20-23
• Week 6: Monday, Oct. 13 at Atlanta Falcons, L 14-24
• Week 7: Bye Week
• Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 26 at Carolina Panthers, W 40-9.
• Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, W 28-21.
• Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 9 at Miami Dolphins, L 13-30.
• Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 16 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, W 44-32
• Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 20 at Houston Texans, L 19-23.
• Week 13: Sunday, Nov. 30 at Pittsburgh Steelers, W 26-7.
• Week 14, Sunday, Dec. 7: vs. Cincinnati Bengals, W 39-34.
• Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 14 at New England Patriots, W 35-31
• Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 21 at Cleveland Browns, W 23-20
• Week 17: Dec. 28 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, L 12-13.
• Week 18: Jan. 3-4, vs. New York Jets ,W 35-8
• Week 19: Jan. 11, at Jacksonville Jaguars, W 27-24
• Week 20: Jan. 17, at Denver Broncos, 4:30 p.m.

Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at [email protected], and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Broncos prediction, players who could decide playoff game