AmEast Preview: Week 3 (Part 2)

Happy MLK Day (Eve, if you are reading this on Sunday), America East fans!

Here are a few hundred words on all four daytime games, including Danes-Cats on ESPNU!

Vermont @ Albany (1 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

• My Projection: Vermont 73.7, Albany 69.4

A nationally televised America East game! Finally, the rest of the country can experience the thrills that we do each week. You’re welcome, America West/North/South.

Vermont’s injury situation is rather dire. I don’t expect to see TJ Long or Noah Barnett on Monday, and head coach John Becker is still managing Gus Yalden’s minutes. 

I thought Albany played its most complete game of the season on Thursday against Binghamton, especially with Tarique Foster having a breakout performance. The Danes created well off the bounce, made their off-ball jumpers, and dominated the boards. 

Vermont won’t let Albany get any transition or second-chance buckets (the Danes lead the league in offensive rebounding rate, but the Cats rank second nationally in defensive rebounding rate), but I don’t trust the Catamounts’ individual half-court defense against Amir Lindsey and Jaden Kempson, especially without Long and Barnett, two of the Cats’ best defenders. Instead, we’ll likely see Ben Johnson play big minutes alongside Sean Blake and TJ Hurley, forming a smaller, potentially super-vulnerable perimeter defensive unit. Could Becker counter that and provide length with more Lucas Mari backcourt minutes? Maybe.

Against Binghamton, Vermont pulled off another big-time second-half comeback on the back of Momo Nkugwa. He, Blake, and Hurley will likely shoulder more of the shot creation as Yalden and Long get healthy. 

For this specific game, I’m unsure how effective Dwayne Killings’ amoeba zone will be against Vermont. On one hand, the Danes should keep the Cats’ dribble trio out of the lanes, and Okechukwu Okeke can contain Yalden with help via traps on the baseline. On the other hand, Vermont is a good zone offense because of its inside-out shooting (Yalden is an elite passer out of post doubles) and perimeter cutting ability in Becker’s motion-based sets, and Albany is due for plenty of 3-point regression on defense (25% 3-point shooting allowed, an unsustainably low number). 

This could be a fascinating coaching chess match, but I know I trust Becker more in that scenario. Then again, I think the Hospital Cats are due to drop a game, and it should come during this three-game road trip against Albany, Lowell, and Bryant. 

TLDR: We’ll see. 

Injury Notes: Don’t expect Long or Barnett to play. Albany is likely still without Nas Muhammad and Yaya Keita.

Bryant @ NJIT (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

• My Projection: NJIT 67.1, Bryant 65.7

Jamion Christian and his staff proved their coaching chops against UMBC. The Bulldogs finally pieced together a coherent offensive game plan, attacking the Retrievers’ defensive weaknesses with posts, cuts, and rolls, ultimately scoring 40 points at the rim. The Bulldogs’ massive wing quartet of Aaron Davis, Ashley Sims, Keegan Harvey, and Timofei Rudovskii combined for 67 points on 57% 2-point shooting. 

But NJIT is a different animal. The Highlanders’ shell defense will force Bryant’s lackluster shooting wings to beat them over the top, and Melvyn Ebonkoli could maul Ty Tabales while hedging ball screens — I don’t think the freshman is ready to handle those coverages, especially after turning it over four times against Maine.

A sneaky important matchup will be the shot-volume battle. NJIT leads the America East in rebounding-and-turnover differential (+28), while Bryant ranks last (-30). The performances of Tabales and Bryant’s big men in the extras could decide the game — Ebonkoli is a monster rebounder, while David Bolden is averaging over two steals per game. 

In their lone AmEast loss, the Highlanders struggled to stop TJ Biel. That tells me that Rudovskii needs to have another big game, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility after his 22-point performance on Thursday.

On the other end of the court, Bryant was roasted by Albany and Lowell’s bruising wings, despite the monster size of the roster. NJIT is no longer one-dimensional on offense (formerly, it was all Bolden and SebRob dribble drives), as it has several different offensive options up and down the roster — I think Ari Fulton could take the charge off the wing on Monday with another big day after scoring 24 against Lowell and 18 against New Hampshire. 

TLDR: Lean ‘Landers. 

Injury Notes: Still waiting to see if Quincy Allen will return after missing the past two games. The same goes for Jeremy Clayville, who has missed the past three. Malachi Arrington returned against Lowell, playing 15 minutes.

New Hampshire @ Maine (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

• My Projection: New Hampshire 63.8, Maine 62.7

New Hampshire will likely attempt to attack on the block. Typically, Maine is vulnerable at the rim because of its aggressive defense, so I could see the Wildcats feasting on cuts and posts. 

However, I was really impressed with how Keelan Steele held up against Yalden in post coverage on Thursday. The Wildcats also brought plenty of extra help on the block and forced Vermont into more inside-out and perimeter creation. 

I expect to see the same game plan on Monday, and if the Bears can contain Belal El Shakery and Comeh Emuobor, New Hampshire will have to make some jumpers and back-door cut off those. The Wildcats are shooting a league-high 40% from 3, but I doubt last, and we’ll likely see some regression against Maine’s aggressive, extended perimeter defense.  

I still trust New Hampshire’s defense in transition and on the boards, but Maine won’t test those areas, and I don’t trust the Wildcats’ individual defense. The Wildcats mostly switch and drop against the ball-screen, and I expect Biel to have a field day as a roller against either coverage, while Logan Carey has shown some life as a dribble creator. 

TLDR: Wouldn’t be surprised to see Maine pull off the upset. 

Injury Notes: Mekhi Gray is somehow back on the roster, although I’m unsure what his usage will be going forward.

UMBC @ Binghamton (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

• My Projection: UMBC 74.2, Binghamton 66.8

Binghamton has the size to punish UMBC down on the block, but it will require big days from Zyier Beverly and Wes Peterson. The Retrievers have allowed over 40 rim points in the past two games, and nobody attacks the rim like the Bearcats. 

That said, I still trust the Retrievers’ dribble defense and ball-screen coverage, so I don’t see Jeremiah Quigley destroying UMBC as he has other AmEast squads. They also don’t foul much, which is key against the rim-bashing, foul-baiting Bearcats. 

On the other end, I really don’t trust the Bearcats’ dribble defense, and they can get abused by good drive-and-kick backcourts. So, I foresee a field day for Ace Valentine, Jah’likai King, and DJ Armstrong in Shrink 3 actions. 

Per usual, Binghamton has a big shot volume problem, given its issues in rebounding and turnover, while the Retrievers rank second among AmEast teams in turnover differential. That’ll show in the perimeter battle.

UMBC finally saw some much-needed close-game regression against Bryant, so perhaps this is a good bounce-back spot. 

TLDR: I think this is a decent schematic matchup for UMBC, although the rim defense has to improve after getting rocked against a bunch of bruising big men.

Injury Notes: Riley Jacobs and Daylon Dickerson missed the Bryant game. Their return would be helpful to UMBC’s rim defense in Monday’s game, although I haven’t minded the Jose Roberto Tanchyn minutes, and he could eat up Binghamton’s porous roll-man defense.