Commentary: MLB can’t continue like this

A lot of emotions came down the pike when it was reported that Kyle Tucker agreed to what is being touted as a four year, 240 million dollars contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Much of the emotional response could be explained through sticker shock. I don’t think anyone dreamed that Tucker was a 60 million AAV player. I’m sure the Toronto Blue Jays felt they were well within range when they reportedly offered him ten years and 350 million dollars.

So, that is certainly part of our collective emotional response. The second part of that response comes from the fact that it is the Dodgers. I have tried really hard in my life not to hate anyone and for the most part I have succeeded, but sports hate is definitely a thing and the Dodgers are high on that list. It’s not only about success. It is about the whining. However, that’s a different topic for a different day. We could get into the whys and what fors at that time, but I think most of Astros nation is on the same page.

In my childhood, it was the New York Yankees existing as the evil empire. The irony is that they weren’t successful until I was in my twenties. Still, there is the appearance of inevitably. That is what stings days after the news. I can accept a man getting his pay day. Tucker and his agent structured this deal as brilliantly as possible with much of it coming upfront in the form of a signing bonus. So, when labor strife hits following the season, he will have pocketed a good portion of that contract. So, the anger doesn’t sit on Tucker. It sits on the Dodgers and what the league is allowing them to do.

Spotrac.com projects that the Dodgers 2026 payroll will equal 429.9 million dollars in average annual value. The New York Mets are second with 305 million. The Astros are still existing under the competitive balance tax. Six teams are currently above it. It should be noted that three of those six teams are in the AL East. Seven teams are currently below 100 million dollars at the moment. We have not seen this kind of financial disparity for some time.

It would be wrong to say we have never seen it. The Yankees dominated the sport between 1920 and 1964. People often forget the other half of that equation. The Philadelphia Phillies averaged 100 losses a season between 1920 and 1940. Imagine losing 100 games every year for 20 years. What happens to those fanbases? We aren’t quite there, but we are getting closer. The Colorado Rockies have lost 100 or more games three seasons in a row and have averaged 100 losses over the last five. They are the most extreme examples, but everyone can point to teams like the Pirates, Athletics, Nationals, Marlins, and Royals as cities that go long periods of time between competitive teams.

The core of the problem

This is usually where fans start chanting for a salary cap. The problem isn’t that simple. When you look at the salary structures in the NBA and NFL you see that a core part of the process is that both the union and owners know what is in the pot. Negotiating is easier from that point. Owners and players haggle over what percentage the players will get from the pie. In both leagues that tends to cover between 50 and 55 percent of revenues. Most of the negotiations come down to exactly how those percentages will be dolled out.

The core of the problem in MLB is that the owners have never opened their books. We don’t know exactly what the revenues are. We are forced to guess based on fragments of information we get from different sources. If we don’t know then the players also don’t know. That lack of trust clouds any and all negotiations. It prevents the players from agreeing to anything that will potentially restrain spending.

The sum total of salaries according to Spotrac is around 5.3 billion dollars. One can easily guess it will push to around 5.5 billion once Spring Training begins. So, the core of the issue is how players and owners can equitably split that pie. If you limit the upper end then you must do something about the lower end. That’s easier said than done.

Raise the floor

Unfortunately, without knowing total revenues we are left guessing. Even if we agreed that the players deserve 50 percent of revenues we would be left wondering 50 percent of what exactly. However, it seems reasonable to ask the players to keep their overall salary level or slightly increase it in lieu of rolling it back. The problem isn’t the level of player salaries, but how they are being distributed. It is unsustainable for one team to spend 400 million while other teams are spending under 100.

So, the goal is not to limit overall salaries, but to bring the bottom and the top closer together. That would require a salary floor. The question is how to get there. It is not a simple magic wand of saying you have to spend 150 million or 200 million dollars. There is a question of how to get teams the revenue to spend that kind of money. There is also the question of other expenditures teams make. The Rockies famously do not spend money on technology for scouting purposes. Some teams invest more money in international scouting than others. A true cap and floor would have to include total baseball related expenditures.

We are probably looking at a sliding structure similar to what we currently see with the competitive balance tax. Penalties escalate with each season teams exceed the tax. The same could be applied at the bottom. For instance, the St. Louis Cardinals have fallen below the 100 million mark because they have shed a ton of payroll this offseason. That’s different than teams like the Pirates who seemingly live there. Those penalties should reflect that.

Tying up loose ends

That battle will be the headliner for the coming negotiation, but there are other issues as well. The NBA restricts individual salaries. The NFL doesn’t. Is 60 million AAV too much for a player? Heck, Shohei Ohtani is getting 70 million. Naturally, some of their salaries are deferred which is another major concern. We cannot continue where the Dodgers get to skate by some of their tax liabilities by kicking the can down the road. If they want to defer payment to players that is between them and the player, but they should be on the hook for the whole value of the contract.

The other issue will likely involve service time. This is an area where the owners can offer significant change to get concessions from the players. In the NFL and NBA, players get to free agency faster. It is four or five years in the NFL. It is four in the NBA. Moving the service time clock up in baseball would definitely suit the players. A part of the issue is that baseball players have a minor league portion of their careers. Service time could be altered to include that time. That would keep teams from stashing players in the minors to delay their service clock. Instead of making it a hard and fast four seasons you could make it seven total from the date of the draft or signing. Therefore, teams might be more incentivized to promote players when they are ready.

These are all just ideas that are banging around our heads. I am open to any suggestions as to how this situation can change. What isn’t negotiable is business as usual. Whether a Dodgers World Series is actually inevitable is certainly debatable. It feels inevitable and that is all we need to know. If it feels inevitable then fan interest dwindles. If fan interest dwindles then revenues dwindle. That’s obviously bad for everyone involved.