Industry Study: NFL Bettors Wagered Less Than Expected At Regulated Sportsbooks This Season

NFL bettors drastically overstated how much they would wager this season, particularly on live, in-game markets, according to an analysis released last week by Optimove Insights.

Some of the findings, gleaned from “observed behavior” of nearly four million bettors, and using preseason and follow-up surveys of 425 others, underscore a potentially troubling trend for the domestic sports betting industry, specifically that the nation’s most popular league failed to generate the expected traction for live betting, which is considered a long-term profit generator for sportsbooks.

Said the Optimove report: “NFL bettors are directionally honest about how they want to bet, but consistently overestimate how often, how live, and how much they’ll wager, especially once the season begins.”

The study by Optimove, an engagement solution firm for iGaming and sports betting operators, included data from the beginning of the season through the Wild Card round.

Key findings from the Optimove analysis

• While 31% said they planned to bet on live markets, just 17% did. This could increase as postseason games — the conference championships and Super Bowl remain — become “appointment events,” according to the report.

• A full 75% said they bet in the regular season, “almost exactly matching preseason intent,” according to the study.
• Just15% bet during the first round of the postseason although 48% said they would.
• “Low-stake, high-frequency” bets dominated. The default “stake band” was defined as $11-50, with higher increments “significantly rarer.”

That may change deeper in the postseason, according to the report: “Based on how betting typically behaves as stakes rise, we expect a concentration effect — fewer days, bigger moments. The Divisional Round, Conference Championships, and Super Bowl have fewer games, so raw volume may not match the regular season but attention is higher, which often shows up as more bets per game, higher average stake, and heavier live-betting mix.”

The additional of casual viewer/bettors in the deep postseason would likely lower the average stake even further.

One more noteworthy observation: Parlay bettors bet parlays. There were 72% who said they would and 70% said they did.

What can sportsbooks learn from the analysis?

In-game and microbetting drew heavy, negative scrutiny in 2025 because it was at the center of a high-profile corruption scandal. Former Cleveland Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz were indicted in November on federal fraud and sports bribery charges after allegedly colluding to manipulate single-pitch markets for their financial benefit and that of conspiring gamblers.

Numerous state-level politicians have since introduced legislation to curb or ban these type of quick markets and pre-game props, and the NBA and NCAA have implored sportsbooks to limit what types of bets are permissible.

Sportsbook officials have insisted that these types of bets are simply not going away, but the lack of follow-through among the surveyed NFL bettors in 2025-26 poses the question of whether the microbets are worth the trouble.

Even though Optimove characterizes live betting as having “consistently over-promised and under-delivered,” there could be a fix, as the report explains:

No funds league?

The Optimove report coincides with further bad news for the domestic sports betting industry in what is traditionally the harvest season for profit.

In the biggest sports betting economy in the U.S., the New York State Gaming Commission recently announced that revenue decreased 40% year-over-year from the 2025 Wild Card round to the most recent, from $62.04 million to $37.3 million for the week ending Jan. 11.

Industry analysts and observers, meanwhile, continue to assess the impact prediction markets, some offering parlays (or “combos”), have had in recent DraftKings and Flutter stock market stumbles, alongside the disappointing New York figures.

The American Gaming Association estimated in August that more than $30 billion would be wagered legally in this NFL season. Americans bet $1.39 billion on the most recent Super Bowl.