How do bumpy greens affect PGA Tour pros? Here's what the data says

It's a common West Coast Swing talking point: as the day gets later, the greens get tougher.

That's thanks to Poa annua grass, which has a reputation for becoming bumpier and more unpredictable later in the day on account of the grass’s rapid afternoon growth and seedhead production. With Poa greens in play at Torrey Pines this week - plus two more upcoming Tour stops, in Pebble Beach and Riviera - we dove into the data to determine if putting on the PGA Tour actually becomes more difficult as the day progresses.

The math behind bumpy greens

We looked at more than 9,000 official rounds tracked by the Tour's ShotLink technology on those three courses over the last 10 seasons. Across the board, putt make rates from various distance ranges decrease for players with later tee times. Take putting from five to 10 feet: for players who tee off before 9 a.m. local time, the make rate over the last decade is 52.3%. From 9 a.m. to 11 a.m., that number drops just a touch, to 52.2%. From noon to 2 p.m., it dips to 50%.

Because contending players with later weekend tee times inherently make more putts than their competition, let's isolate that data to just Rounds 1 and 2. On putts from 4-8 feet, players teeing off before 9 a.m. local make 64.9% of their putts. In the 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. group, that number drops to 61.5%.

A decrease of 3.4% might sound insignificant, but the margins between success and failure are razor-thin in professional golf. That differential represents the gap in make rate from 4 to 8 feet on the 8th-toughest course on Tour in that metric in 2025 (Sedgefield Country Club) and 25th toughest (Country Club of Jackson).

Which of these venues is impacted most by the day's progression? When splitting the times into two blocks, the early risers at Riv have the most distinct advantage. Over the last decade, players who tee off before 10 a.m. local time make 3.4% more putts from 4 to 8 feet than their counterparts teeing off after that time. The differences for Torrey Pines South (-0.3%) and Pebble Beach (-2.3%) are narrower.

Players who have finished in the top 10 in those three tournaments the last 10 years - the Farmers Insurance Open, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational - have made 70.4% of their putts from 4 to 8 feet that week. Players who finished outside the top-10 made just 63.3%. One putt - or bump on the green - can make up that difference.

How about strokes gained? Does golf's most comprehensive putting metric reflect the trend, and, if so, how significant can the difference be?

Again, from an analytical perspective, Riviera is the most impacted of the three courses. The difference in strokes gained putting per round is a little over one-tenth of a stroke when comparing players the last decade who have teed off before and after 10 a.m. local time. For Riv, that number is almost doubled - an average difference of two-tenths of a stroke per round played.

Which players in recent years have performed best at these venues? A handful of elite putters have taken advantage of their peers' struggles.

MAX HOMA

Perhaps it's to be expected with his West Coast roots, but Max Homa has been one of the most consistent putters on these Poa surfaces throughout his career. His +0.77 strokes gained putting per round at the Riviera-Pebble-Torrey triumvirate is best among players with 20 or more rounds since 2020. In his two victories in that stretch - the 2021 Genesis Invitational and 2023 Farmers Insurance Open - Homa averaged 1.31 strokes gained putting per round.

The numbers are even more impressive when stretching the data back a full decade. Homa has averaged just 0.36 three-putts per round, fourth-fewest among qualified players since 2016. His make rate of 28.3 percent from 10 to 20 feet is also eighth-best in that span.

Homa has holed 73.3% of his putts from 4 to 8 feet on these courses the last six years, the 5th-highest make rate among qualified players. In 2025, Homa was actually better from that range on these traditionally more difficult setups (71.1%) than he was the rest of the season (62.8%).

COLLIN MORIKAWA

When Collin Morikawa won his second major at the 2021 Open, he was the first player to do so in eight or fewer career starts since Bobby Jones. Accolades dot seemingly every square inch of Morikawa's resume, but if there's one facet of his game that has warranted criticism to date, it's his putting. Over the last six PGA Tour seasons, he's ranked outside the top 110 in strokes gained putting five times.

That changes significantly, though, when Morikawa has his feet on familiar West Coast soil. Since 2020, he makes 1.97 putts of 10 feet or longer per round at the trio of venues in question, the second-highest rate of any player. He also ranks among the leaders in putting from 10 to 20 feet (4th) and average feet of putts made per round (7th). It's helped him to top-three finishes at both Riviera (2022) and Torrey Pines (2023).

MAVERICK McNEALY

Fittingly, a former Stanford star joins a pair of Cal Bears. Maverick McNealy ranks second since 2020 in average feet of putts made per round on these three courses (78'2").  He is ranked 5th in strokes gained putting per round (+0.70) and 12th in putt make rate from 10 to 20 feet (29.1%) at these venues since the '20 season. It makes sense then that three of McNealy's four best finishes on the PGA Tour have come in California.

WYNDHAM CLARK

In the third round of his Pebble Beach victory two years ago, it seemed like Wyndham Clark made every putt he looked at. On a soggy Saturday, Clark rolled in a staggering 189 feet, 9 inches of putts on his way to a 60, his lowest score to date on Tour. He nailed four putts of at least 24 feet on the front nine alone that day.

Through Clark's career, though, it's not just the long ones that have gone down for him in California. His make rate of 61.3% from 5 to 10 feet on these three West Coast courses is the fourth-best of any player since 2020. Clark gained more than 2.26 strokes putting in his two measured rounds at The American Express last week en route to a T13 finish.

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