What was the biggest surprise of the 2025 NFL season?

There is just one more game left to be played in the 2025-26 NFL season. Either the New England Patriots or Seattle Seahawks will walk away as champions.

Both teams are pretty big surprises this year. The Seahawks’ odds to win the Super Bowl before the start of training camp were about 60-to-1. The Patriots were an ever bigger longshot to be here. Odds for them were around 80-to-1. For comparison’s sake, the Lions had the fifth-best odds at 12-to-1.

All of that is to say that it’s been a very surprising year for everyone. Patrick Mahomes missed the playoffs, as did Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, and Dak Prescott.

Today’s Question of the Day is:

What has been the biggest surprise of the 2025 NFL season?

My answer: I could go in so many directions here. The Chicago Bears winning the NFC North is pretty high on the list, although I had a feeling they would at least compete for the division this year. The Chiefs going 6-11 was certainly shocking, but everyone knew they overachieved last year and were heading in the wrong direction. I’m still having trouble believing that the Jaguars went 13-4 this year.

But I think my biggest shock is that the Seahawks won the Geno Smith trade decisively.

I’ll be honest, I was extremely confused by the Seahawks’ move at the time. It seemed like a rebuilding move when they had a roster capable of contending already. Smith wasn’t outstanding in 2024, but he helped lead the Seahawks to a 10-7 record, threw for over 4,300 passes, and seemed like he could lead Seattle to another competitive season in 2025. Trading away a perfectly capable starting quarterback for just a third-round pick and no clear replacement was shocking at the time.

But the Seahawks smartly outbid everyone for Sam Darnold, and the quarterback upgrade couldn’t have been clearer. Check out the stats between 2025 Darnold and 2024 Smith.

Geno Smith’s 2024 season with Seahawks:

• 407-of-578 (70.4%) for 4,320 yards, 7.5 Y/A, 93.2 passer rating

Sam Darnold’s 2025 season with Seahawks:

• 323-of-477 (67.7%) for 4,048 yards, 8.5 Y/A, 99.1 passer rating

Meanwhile, Smith collapsed completely with the Raiders, throwing just 19 touchdowns to 17 interceptions for an 84.7 passer rating—and now Las Vegas has a new head coach and will likely be looking for a new quarterback.

My perception of the trade from when it happened to what it looks like now is a stark reminder that this game is very hard to predict.

What was the biggest surprise of the 2025 NFL season to you? Share your answers in the comment section at the bottom of the page.