Michigan State basketball bracketology: Path to March Madness is clear

MSU basketball continues its path to coach Tom Izzo's 28th straight March Madness bid. Here's what seed Spartans are in bracketology projections.

The first half of Big Ten play came to a thrilling, albeit grinding, conclusion for Michigan State basketball on Tuesday, Jan. 26, with a comeback win at Rutgers.

The second half started almost as thrilling – the Spartans put together another dramatic rally – before MSU ran out of gas late to open with a deflating rivalry loss at home to No. 2 Michigan on Friday.

You didn’t think it was going to be an easy path to March Madness, did you?

MSU will likely fall from its No. 8 perch in last week’s USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll when the rankings are revealed Monday. But at 19-3 and 9-2 in the Big Ten, the Spartans remain well on track to get Tom Izzo his 28th consecutive NCAA tournament appearance.

Even though the rest of the regular-season road doesn’t get any easier.

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo reacts to a play against Michigan during the second half at Breslin Center in East Lansing on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026.

A trip to Minnesota and always difficult Williams Arena is ahead for MSU on Wednesday (7 p.m., Big Ten Network). The Gophers (10-12, 3-8) have lost seven straight after falling at previously winless-in-the-Big Ten Penn State on Sunday, 77-75. The Spartans fell into a third-place tie with Nebraska and are now a game behind the Wolverines and Saturday-winner Illinois, which visits Breslin Center on Feb. 7 (8 p.m., Fox) for another primetime showcase game that will be critical in the hunt for Izzo’s record 12th Big Ten regular-season title.

And it gives MSU an opportunity to get back into contention in a race where their final nine opponents own a combined 60-39 record in Big Ten play heading into this week (only Minnesota and 2-9 Rutgers remain with losing league records on the Spartans' schedule). It also provides Izzo and his players eight opportunities to build their NCAA résumé and remain on track for a top-four seed if they can get back to winning.

Michigan State basketball schedule this week

Wednesday: at Minnesota, 7 p.m., Big Ten Network.

Saturday: vs. Illinois, 8 p.m., Fox.

Michigan State basketball bracketology for NCAA Tournament

NET rankings: No. 11 (Last week: No. 10)

All rankings entering Sunday’s games.

Quad 1 record: 6-3

Quad 2 record: 4-0

Quad 3 record: 2-0

Quad 4 record: 7-0

KenPom rankings: No. 9 (Last week: No. 6)

All rankings entering Monday.

Offensive efficiency: No. 46

Defensive efficiency: No. 2

Michigan State basketball bracketology projections

USA TODAY: 3-seed in Midwest vs. Winthrop (updated Jan. 31).

ESPN: 2-seed in West vs. Navy (updated Jan. 30).

CBS: 3-seed in East vs. ETSU (updated Feb. 1).

Bleacher Report: 3-seed in West, vs. Lipscomb (updated Jan. 25).

The Athletic: 2-seed in South vs. Navy (updated Jan. 27).

Fox Sports: 2-seed in East vs. Winthrop (updated Jan. 30).

On3: 3-seed in West vs. Marist (updated Feb. 1).

Bracket Matrix: 3-seed (updated Feb. 1).

Michigan State basketball results last week

Jan. 27: Down by 12 points with a little less than 10 minutes to play in regulation, Jeremy Fears Jr. led a feverish comeback and Divine Ugochukwu swirled in a tying 3-pointer with 11.1 seconds remaining to send the game to overtime. Once there, Fears and Jaxon Kohler combined for all 15 of MSU’s points. Fears scored 27 of his then-career high 29 points in the second-half comeback.

Jan. 30: The Spartans again dug a big hole, trailing the Wolverines by 18 in the waning moments of the first half before a Coen Carr dunk at the buzzer. That bucket and some stern words in the locker room set off a furious 31-15 explosion out of halftime that put MSU seemingly improbably in front, 59-57, with 6:55 to play on freshman Jordan Scott’s driving layup. But U-M closed with a 23-12 knockout to get its first win in East Lansing since 2018. Fears eclipsed his three-day-old career best with 31 points, 19 of them in the final half, while Jordan Scott scored 10 points off the bench and appears headed for starting duty in place of Ugochukwu at shooting guard moving forward.

How NCAA tournament committee selects at-large teams

Record: The team's overall record, conference record and nonconference record. 

Strength of schedule: The strength of the opponents the team played against.

Head-to-head results: The results of games between the teams being compared.

Conference championships: Whether a conference championship was won in the regular season or tournament. 

Common opponents: The results of games against common opponents.

Adjusted Net Efficiency (NET): The NCAA's preferred metric measuring a team's overall performance during the regular season.

Team Value Index: A results-oriented component of the NET that ranks teams based on who they beat and where they played.

Rating Percentage Index (RPI): A formula that ranks teams using a team's winning percentage, opponents' success and opponents' strength of schedule.

Contact Chris Solari: [email protected]. Follow him @chrissolari.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan State basketball bracketology seed, projections

Category: General Sports