Big Ten Power Rankings: Halfway Home

We’re past the halfway point in the Big Ten race as everyone except Maryland and Iowa has now played at least 11 conference games. Since the Terrapins are clearly not a contender their remaining game is not a factor. In the last update we had five true contenders and I think that holds true, but there are two that are beginning to separate themselves to truly be at the top. Wisconsin is also quietly making a case, and with games left against Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue they will at least have a say in how this all goes down.

Title Coentenders

1. Michigan Wolverines (20-1, 10-1) – Last Ranking: 1 – Michigan had a great week last week in knocking off Michgian State and Nebraska, so not only are they on top, they have some critical tiebreakers. I expect them to be here until a final closing stretch at Illinois, at Iowa, and home for Michigan State, but this is an awfully good team.
2. Illinois Fighting Illini (19-3, 10-1) – Last Ranking: 5 – The Illini have been on a tear with 11 straight wins, including at Purdue and Nebraska. Their February 27 game at home against Michigan is lookinglike a winner-take-all game because both Illinois and Michigan are ahead of everyone else. Both could easily be No. 1 seeds in March.
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers (20-2, 9-2) – Last Ranking: 1 – There’s no shame in this two game losing streak, as they took Michigan to the wire in Ann Arbor and fell at home to a red hot Illinois team. They already got a win over the Illini in Champaign too. The stage is set for their home game next week against Purdue, which is now almost a must-win for the Boilermakers if they want to get back in the race.
4. Michigan State Spartans (19-3, 9-2) – Last Ranking: 4 – Sparty faded late Friday night in a huge home game against Michigan and they are now a little off the pace. That has them 0-2 against this top 5 here with games still to go against Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan.
5. Purdue Boilermakers (18-4, 8-3) – Last Ranking: 2 – Was Sunday’s 30 point road win over Maryland a much-needed reset for Purdue? It certainly looked like it for Fletcher Loyer. As Chris Kramer pointed out, in 2009-10 Purdue lost three straight Big Ten games and still won the league, but there is now a lot of work to do. Purdue can’t lose at home again and it really needs the win next week at Nebraska.
6. Wisconsin Badgers (16-6, 8-3) – Last Ranking: 6 – I am moving the Badgers into the contender tier, at least temporarily, because they have done what no one else in the country has been able to do: beat Michigan. The remaining schedule is relatively favorable too. They probably won’t win the league, but with games left against Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue they will at least have a say in who does.

Likely NCAA Teams

7. Iowa Hawkeyes (16-5, 6-4) – Last Ranking: 8 – Iowa is just there and kind of lurking. They have five games left against the top six, including two with Nebraska. I don’t see them going 0-5 in those, either. They have proven they can play with anyone.

8. Indiana Hoosiers (15-7, 6-5) – Last Ranking: 7 – No one had a better week last week than Indiana, as they picked up Tier 1 wins over Purdue and UCLA, with the UCLA one coming on the road in double OT. A win over USC tonight gives them some breathing room to make the tourney.

9. UCLA Bruins (15-7, 7-4) – Last Ranking: 9 – UCLA is a weird team. They have the ability to play with anyone, but it feels like they have done less with more. They made a great comeback to force OT against Indiana, but could not hold on. They have an absolutely brutal upcoming stretch at Michigan, at MIchigan State, and home for Illinois that is sure to make Mick Cronin grumpy even when they win.

Bubbly

10. Ohio State Buckeyes (14-7, 6-5) – Last Ranking: 13 – The Buckeyes make a big jump to the Bubble this week witha NET rating of 40. They are still just 1-6 against Tier 1 NET teams, and that one win is at No. 70 Northwestern. Lots of work to do, but they are in the hunt.

11. USC Trojans (15-6, 5-6) – Last Ranking: 10 – A home loss to Northwestern is bad. A road win at Wisconsin is good. USC is a team all over the map. I could see them losing at Penn State and winning at home over Illinois.

Washington Goes Here

12. Washington Huskies (12-10, 4-7) – Last Rnaking: 12 – Washington gets its own category by virtue of them being over .500 overall, but there is still a big dropoff between them and the top 11. What is interesting for them is they have no games left against any of the five ranked teams in conference play, so we can likely safely forget about them.

Big Ten Network is Contractually Obligated to Broadcast Games Between These Six Teams

13. Minnesota Golden Gophers (10-12, 3-8) – Minnesota is almost a good team. I say “almost” because they don’t get blown out, but they are not closing games. They have lost seven straight, but two were in overtime and two more were by three points or less. They generally make life very annoying for their opponents.

14. Northwestern Wildcats (10-12, 2-9) – Last Ranking: 14 – Northwestern is just kind of there this year. Their league wins are over USC and Penn State and htey haven’t really pushed any of the favorites.

15. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-13, 2-9) – Last Ranking: 15 – Rutgers nearly did everyone a favor in knocking of Michigan State in Piscataway, but they could not close it out at the free throw line and lost in overtime.

16. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-12, 1-10) – Last Ranking: 17 – Penn State is above the bottom two because they finally won a game. It was by two over Minnesota, but at least they won’t go winless in the league.

17. Maryland Terrapins (8-13, 1-9) – Last Ranking: 18 – Maryland was never even in the game with a reeling Purdue team. While I appreciate that after three straight losses, I don’t know if Purdue got things right or if they are just that bad.

18. Oregon Ducks (8-14, 1-10) – Last Ranking: 16 – So we’re doing this, I guess. We’re really going to have all 18 teams in the Big Ten Tournament. There are now two Tuesday night first round games that will almost certainly have Maryland, Oregon, Penn State, and one other team that will be the least watched events in the history of Peacock sports. Oregon has dropped eight in a row and now has a road trip to the Indiana schools.