BYU vs Oklahoma State Preview: BYU Looks to Bounce Back on the Road

BYU looks to get back on track Wednesday night when they travel to Stillwater to face Oklahoma State in a Quad 1 game for both teams. BYU has four Q1 wins on the season, but hasn’t picked up a Q1 win since beating Clemson on December 9. The win at Kansas State Jan 3 was a Q1 win at the time, but the Wildcats have fallen to Q2 territory after a 1-8 start in Big 12 play.

A win for BYU would help the resume with a Quad 1 road win and give BYU some confidence heading into a big matchup Saturday versus #8 Houston in Provo.

BYU-Oklahoma State tip off at 7pm MT on FS1.

BYU and Oklahoma State by the Numbers

Oklahoma State KenPom: 57

NET ranking: 68

Record: 15-6 (3-5 Big 12)

Best Wins: Texas A&M (H), Northwestern (N), UCF (H), Kansas State (H), Utah (A)

Losses: Oklahoma (N), Texas Tech (A), Iowa State (A), Baylor (H), TCU (A), Iowa State (H)

AP Ranking: n/a

BYU KenPom: 15

NET Ranking: 12

Record: 17-4 (5-3 Big 12)

AP Ranking: 16

KenPom Prediction: BYU 87, Oklahoma State 82 — BYU 69% win probability

Point Spread: BYU -6.5

Point Total: 169.5

Oklahoma State Overview

The Cowboys are an improved team from last season and have some solid wins in non-conference play, but they find themselves on the periphery of the bubble due to zero Quad 1 wins up to this point.

OSU pushes the tempo as much as anyone in the Big 12, which means this should be a high-scoring game since BYU likes to do the same. They have one of the longest benches in the Big 12 and will usually play 9 or even 10 guys. They like to trap and force turnovers in the halfcourt, and they rotate through guys to keep them fresh.

Offensively, Oklahoma State likes to get to the rim and they shoot the three ball well. According to Kenpom, OSU has the shortest average 2-point attempt distance in conference play at 5.4 feet, but the have the second worst 2-pt attempt percentage in the Big 12 in league play (48.2%). They are fifth in the Big 12 in three-point percentage, shooting 37.2% from three in Big 12 play. OSU is also bottom five in offensive rebound percentage and are middle of the pack in turnovers. Bottomline, OSU can be dangerous with their tempo and ability to get hot from three, but they have inconsistencies with their deficiencies of finishing at the rim and manufacturing second chance points.

Defensively, Oklahoma State wants to force turnovers. They force turnovers on 16.7% of their possessions in Big 12 play, which is fourth in the league. When they are forcing turnovers that leads right into to their transition offense where they can be dangerous. While they are good at forcing turnovers, they aren’t great at it and have real deficiencies on defense. Oklahoma State is bottom three in 3-point defense in Big 12 play, allowing opponents to shoot 37% from three. They are also bottom five in two-point defense and have the second lowest block rate in Big 12 play. BYU played big frontcourts in Arizona and Kansas, and Oklahoma State doesn’t have anyone that averages over a block per game.

Oklahoma State is 2-2 at home in Big 12 play, beating UCF and Kansas and losing to Baylor by 15 points and Iowa State by 13.

Player Overview

Anthony Roy, Guard — The 6-foot-5 guard leads OSU in scoring at 17.5 ppg. Roy is a dynamic and high volume three-point shooter, shooting 44.4% from three on 7.5 attempts per game. Roy can shoot both off the catch and create off the dribble. He averages just 1.3 assists, but he can get hot quick. He’s made at least 5 threes in 4 of 8 Big 12 games.

Parsa Fallah, Center — The 6-foot-10, 250 pounds SUU transfer is OSU’s top big man. Fallah isn’t overly athletic, but is strong in the post and is second in scoring (13.9 ppg) and leads the team in rebounding (6.3 rpg). He is 7-15 from three on the season and has just 7 blocks in 19 games.

Vyctorius Miller, Guard — Miller teams with Roy to form an excellent shooting backcourt. Miller averages 13.1 ppg and shoots 41% from three. He’s struggled in Big 12 play, shooting just 7-28 (25%) from three in league play and scoring in single digits half the games and topping out at 14 points. We’ll see if BYU can help him get his confidence back.

Jaylen Curry, Guard — The 6-foot-1 guard is OSU’s top player off the bench, averaging 10.5 points, 4.3 assists, and 1.6 steals. He’s not a high volume three-point shooter and shoots 29% from three.

Kanye Clary, Guard — The 6-footer is OSU’s starting point, averaging 9.5 points and leading the team with 4.8 assists. He’s shooting 39% from the floor and 30% from three.

Prediction

This game is important for both teams. BYU needs a confidence builder after losing three of the last four, and Oklahoma State is desperately seeking a Quad 1 win to get in the tourney picture. A win over BYU would do that for them.

I like BYU in this one for a few reasons. BYU has struggled against big teams that can clog the paint and have multiple shot blockers. OSU does not do that. They want to trap off screens and force turnovers, and they don’t have a rim protector on the back end. BYU’s ball movement will need to be better, but if they do that they will have open shots and AJ will have space in the paint and little resistance at the rim. This has all the makings of a huge game for BYU’s big three — Richie should get open shots, AJ will have space to operate, and OSU has no real rim protector to bother Rob at the rim.

Defensively, BYU will need to key in on Anthony Roy. BYU has struggled versus dynamic guards, and Roy has the ability to go for 25+ if the defense doesn’t improve versus dribble penetration and rotations. Oklahoma State will take tough contested shots at the basket, so this could be a game where Keba and Bido have a big impact.

I’ll take BYU in a bounce back spot where they find their offense and enough defense to get a road win. BYU is 17-0 this year as a favorite and I think they’ll keep that perfect record intact.

Prediction: BYU 92, Oklahoma State 83