Some injury questions makes this week’s slate tough to predict
Thursday, Feb. 5
Vermont @ Maine (6 PM ET, ESPN+)
- Projection: Vermont 68.0, Maine 60.8
Maine hung around with Vermont at Patrick in the first meeting, but the Catamounts were missing both TJ Long and Noah Barnett. While both will be healthy for the second meeting, the Black Bears will also have Mekhi Gray back for this game. Lucas Mari and Keelan Steele are both doubtful.
Gray and Logan Carey have started to really shine in their roles as primary Black Bear ball-handlers in Chris Markwood’s ball-screen motion offense. Pairing those two with TJ Biel gives Maine some actual life on offense.
This game likely comes down to which version of Vermont’s ball-screen coverage we get — the lackluster one we’ve seen for most of the season, or the elite version we saw against UMBC (and for parts of the NJIT game).
On the other side, Markwood’s aggressive, extended perimeter defense typically throws a wrench in all of John Becker’s perimeter actions, and I expect that to happen again. But Steele did an excellent job defending Gus Yalden one-on-one and preventing the Gus Bus from rolling over Maine’s vulnerable interior, and if he can’t go, I’m not sure if Biel or Ace Flagg can keep the Cats from posting-and-kicking the Bears to death.
TLDR: Tough cookie to crack.
Injury Notes: See above.
Binghamton @ UMBC (6 PM ET, ESPN+)
- Projection: UMBC 76.0, Binghamton 63.1
UMBC went down to Binghamton in the first meeting and walked away with an 18-point win. I don’t see things going any differently in the second matchup.
Jeremiah Quigley likely struggles against UMBC’s elite dribble defenders, while Binghamton can’t stay in front of the dribble against the Retrievers. The Bearcats also can’t keep UMBC out of transition.
TLDR: Expecting another double-digit victory for UMBC.
Injury Notes: Binghamton is pretty healthy at the moment. Everyone looks healthy for UMBC.
Albany @ Bryant (6 PM ET, ESPN+)
- Projection: Albany 68.4, Bryant 67.3
The biggest thing I’ve learned about Albany this year is just how difficult it is to get injury information out of the Danes. I have no clue if Zach Matulu or Abdoulaye Fall will be available for this game. I think Jaden Kempson is good to go, but I’m never going to say anything with 100% confidence when it comes to this program.
On the other side, I think Quincy Allen’s injury has hurt Bryant’s defense more than we know. Bryant’s defense has fallen off a cliff lately, sinking to last in the AmEast in defensive efficiency in conference play. The Bulldogs have gotten super unlucky from 3 lately (opponents have shot over 36% from 3 over the past seven games), but they’ve still been weak on the defensive glass, and they don’t force any turnovers because of their more passive switching-and-shallow-dropping style.
Bryant’s defense is going to naturally force a high rate of isolation, which should allow Amir Lindsey and Co. to cook, given that’s where the Danes prefer to attack. That kind of played out in the first meeting, with Lindsey scoring 21 points on 7-for-10 shooting from inside the arc.
I’m still trying to figure out exactly what happened in Bryant’s 92-point outburst last Saturday, but getting to the line 37 times seems like the obvious culprit. I’m still worried about the Bulldogs’ zone offense against Dwayne Killings’ amoeba zone — although he didn’t break it out much in the first head-to-head meeting, and Bryant still only mustered a pathetic 46 points.
TLDR: Probably comes down to who’s available.
Injury Notes: See above. No clue.
UMass Lowell @ NJIT (7 PM ET, ESPN+)
- Projection: NJIT 75.3, UMass Lowell 73.6
NJIT is a particularly tough matchup for Lowell’s offense. The Highlanders like to pack it in and force everything over the top, which obviously isn’t Lowell’s game. Through the first half of conference play, the only other AmEast team to hold the River Hawks under 30 points in the paint was Vermont.
That said, NJIT’s interior defense has tailed off a bit over the past few games. I’m uncertain if there’s been some scheme change, but the Highlanders have allowed over 34 paint points in each of the past three games (closer to 25 per game allowed before that) and 14 second-chance points in each of the past two games (closer to eight per game allowed before that). They could bounce back, or they could open up the door and let Pat Duquette’s offense waltz to the rim.
Of course, Lowell’s defense is still a disaster, and NJIT now owns the conference’s best offense during league play. The Highlanders have shot-creators at every spot on the floor, and the River Hawks have weak defenders at every spot on the floor.
TLDR: If NJIT’s defense rebounds after a tough week, the Highlanders should walk away with another convincing victory.
Injury Notes: Austin Green should be back after missing both games last week. He’s healthy.
Saturday, Feb. 7
New Hampshire @ Vermont (1:30 PM ET, ESPN+)
- Projection: Vermont 73.9, New Hampshire 65.8
The Catamounts rolled the Wildcats in Durham on AmEast opening night, winning by 21 behind 55 combined points from Yalden, Sean Blake and TJ Hurley. While New Hampshire does all the little things well, like keep opponents out of transition and off the offensive glass, the Wildcats are still relatively vulnerable in straight-up half-court defense, which is a problem against Becker’s methodical motion-based half-court attack.
On the other end, Vermont’s interior defense has continued to trend up during conference play, especially since the return of Barnett — the Cats now lead the league in 2-point shooting allowed (44%). That should throw a wrench in Belal El Shakery’s interior-based attack.
TLDR: I think the Catamounts roll.
Injury Notes: KiJan Robinson had a knee contusion last week but came off the bench last Saturday. I’ll be watching closely to see if Mari returns for this game.
Maine @ Bryant (4 PM ET, ESPN+)
- Projection: Bryant 63.7, Maine 60.7
These two offenses are trending up, and these two defenses are trending down, but it sure feels like a great time for a rebound back to the mean. The first head-to-head meeting was decided by the first team to crack 50 points, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that again.
TLDR: First to 50.
Injury Notes: See above.
Binghamton @ NJIT (4 PM ET, ESPN+)
- Projection: NJIT 74.6, Binghamton 66.3
Again, I wonder if NJIT’s interior defense is actually deteriorating. If it is, that’ll open up the door for Binghamton’s rim-running cutters and slashers. Then again, the Bearcats have to avoid coughing it up 14 times, as they did in the first meeting.
That said, there’s no shot Binghamton stops SebRob off the bounce. He dropped 22 points off the bench in the first meeting.
TLDR: NJIT’s defense decides the game. I could see a higher-scoring game.
Injury Notes: See above.
UMass Lowell @ Albany (7 PM ET, ESPN+)
- Projection: Albany 74.8, Lowell 71.8
This likely depends on who’s available for Albany. Although Lowell ripped apart Albany in the first meeting in the paint (50 points) and on the offensive glass (18 rebounds).
TLDR: Watch the injury reportclosely.
Category: General Sports
