BYU vs Baylor Preview: Rob Wright Returns to Waco in Huge Game for Both Teams

BYU heads to Baylor Tuesday night in a Quad 1 game for both teams. Baylor is desperate for a Q1 win to get in the NCAA picture, while BYU needs a win to snap a four-game losing streak and pick up its first Quad 1 win in two months.

The game tips off at 5:00 MT on ESPN2.

BYU and Baylor by the Numbers

Baylor KenPom: 44

NET ranking: 26

Record: 13-10 (3-8 Big 12)

Best Wins: Washington (H), San Diego State (N), Oklahoma State (A), West Virginia (A), Colorado (H)

Losses: St John’s (N), Memphis (A), TCU (A), Iowa State (H/A), Houston (H), Kansas (A), Texas Tech (H), TCU (H), Cincinnati (A)

AP Ranking: n/a

BYU KenPom: 22

NET Ranking: 18

Record: 17-4 (5-3 Big 12)

AP Ranking: 22

KenPom Prediction: BYU 82, Baylor 81 — BYU 55% win probability

Point Spread: BYU -2.5

Point Total: 161.5

Baylor Overview

Baylor has struggled in Big 12 play (3-8 in Big 12) but have played better their last three games, beating West Virginia and Colorado and losing to Iowa State by 3 on the road.

Turnovers have been a big struggle for Baylor; Baylor ranks 15th in Big 12 play in offensive turnover percentage (18.8%), but did well Saturday at Iowa State, turning the ball over just 9 times versus an Iowa State team that can turn teams over in bunches. The three ball is a big part of Baylor’s offense. The Bears take one of the highest volume of threes in the conference and shoot 33.9% in Big 12 play (#9 in Big 12). They can be inconsistent from distance, but they have four starters who are a threat from three. BYU defended the three-point line well versus Houston and will need to continue that versus Baylor. The Bears are active on the glass, but overall their offense has struggled in Big 12 play with some good flashes mixed in. Back on Jan 13 Baylor won at Oklahoma State 94-79, a place BYU just lost last week.

Defensively, Baylor’s metrics in Big 12 play look better than the offense. The Bears are in the middle of the pack in most metrics, and three-point defense has been one of the weaknesses. Big 12 Opponents shoot 36.2% from three from Baylor (#12 in Big 12). They’ve done better their last three games, holding West Virginia and Iowa State to sub 30% shooting from three.

Baylor is 1-4 at home in conference play, picking up their first win last Wednesday versus Colorado. They lost to top 20 teams Houston, Iowa State, and Texas Tech by an average of 17 points and lost to TCU 97-90. Baylor’s recent mini-surge and the return of Rob Wright to Waco — who left as public enemy #1 to many Baylor fans — should make this a fired up crowd.

Players to Watch

Cincinnati transfer Dan Skillings is listed as questionable with a knee injury. The 6-foot-6 senior transfer has missed the last two games and has started 16 of 20 games. He’s fourth in scoring (10.2 ppg) and second in rebounding (6.5 ppg). Baylor gave Iowa State a battle on Saturday without him, but played three starters 40 minutes and didn’t play any guards off the bench. Skillings availability will be worth monitoring.

Cameron Carr, Guard — Carr leads Baylor in scoring (19.6 ppg) and shoots 52% from the field and 41% from three. BYU has struggled to slow down lead guards, and Carr is another one who can put up points. He scored 24 points and shot 5-10 from three versus Iowa State on Saturday.

Tounde Yessoufou, Guard — Yessoufou is the latest projected lottery freshman to come to Waco. He is a built guard at 6-foot-5 and ultra athletic. Tounde is a physical guard at the rim and isn’t afraid to shoot from distance. He averages 5 three-point attempts but shoots just 31% from three. Tounde can cause problems at the rim and is a real danger when he is hitting threes. He can be a problem on the defensive end with his physicality and athleticism, averaging 2.1 steals.

Obgi Agbim, Guard — The 6-foot-3 Wyoming transfer is another dangerous backcourt scorer. Agbim averages 11.6 points and is another high volume three-point shooter, shooting 38% on seven attempts per game. He is 14-40 from three (40%) his last four games.

Caden Powell, Center — Powell is Baylor’s starting center in their four-guard lineup. The 6-foot-9 big man leads the team in rebounds (6.8 rpg) and averages 6.3 points. He has not made a three pointer in his four-year career and is not a big part of the offense.

Isaac Williams, Guard — Williams is Baylor’s main sixth man, but if Skillings is out the 6-foot-1 guard has replaced him in the starting lineup. Williams averages 9.3 points has does most of his damage getting to the rim. He gives more ball handling than Skillings, but gives Baylor a small starting lineup of only 1 person taller than 6-foot-5 when he plays in place of Skillings.

Prediction

Both teams will be very motivated to win. The Bears need this win get in the NCAA Tournament picture. BYU needs to stop its 4-game slide and pick up a Q1 win. The crowd will be rowdy and ruthless towards Rob Wright.

I can see this game going both ways. If BYU defends like they did versus Houston with the same type of urgency and intensity, then I fully expect them to win and turn a corner. Conversely, it could be a game where they come out flat with the thought in the back of their minds, “we gave everything we could against Houston and still lost.”

Baylor has been playing better and they can give trouble with their shooting if BYU isn’t locked in defensively.

Maybe I’m wishing too much, but I think BYU gets back on track here. BYU has struggled with the length of teams during this losing streak, but Baylor doesn’t have much length with their four-guard lineup, especially if Skillings is out. AJ Dybantsa has been playing like a top pick during this losing streak, and I don’t think Arizona has enough length to shut out the paint like other teams did. Rob Wright’s performance will be a big factor — will he rise to the occasion or will Baylor fans get in his head.

I think BYU gets right here.

Prediction: BYU 84, Baylor 80