Josh Pate: ‘It’s been a very mixed bag’ from Auburn QB Jackson Arnold in fall camp

Auburn had some poor quarterback play last season, and really has for two or three now, down on The Plains. Now, while adding a top-ten portal quarterback in QB Jackson Arnold, the Tigers still may not have an answer at the position, at least until the season kicks off here in three weeks.

On ‘Josh Pate’s College Football Show’ on Sunday, Josh Pate named Arnold as one of the biggest unknowns coming into the fall. That began with some recent notes, none which he thought were too notable, about how the new QB1 for Tigers has performed since the start of fall camp over the last two weeks.

“It’s tough trying to wade through all the rumors about how Jackson Arnold has looked in fall camp so far. I’ll tell you how he’s looked. It has been a very mixed bag. That’s how Jackson Arnold has looked in fall camp so far,” said Pate. “That shouldn’t be a shock. It shouldn’t be breaking news. In fact, it should be breaking news if he was either totally terrible or totally great so far.”

Arnold, the former Five-Star+ recruit and top-five quarterback prospect in his class, disappointed in his first season as a starter at Oklahoma, completing 62.6% of his throws for 1,421 yards, 12 touchdowns, and three interceptions. That led to his transfer this offseason with him committing from the portal to the Tigers.

With that, Pate sees as much variance with Arnold and his effect on this season as just about any other player in the country. On the positive side, if he plays well, Auburn could, based on the rest of the roster around him as well as the opportunities on their schedule, have a legitimate chance to potentially compete for a spot in the SEC Championship and, because of that, even one then in the CFP.

“The unknown is very obvious here. It is not the rest of the roster,” Pate said. “If Jackson Arnold is B+ or better, the rest of the roster could solidly compete for a trip to Atlanta.”

“Like, Georgia goes in there early in the season. That’s one of Georgia’s tough road games. No one’s looking at that game right now. If you’re telling me Jackson Arnold is playing pretty high-level ball, if you’re just telling me he’s fulfilling on the expectation many people, me included, had for him out of high school? That’s like a nightmare potential trap for Georgia that no one’s even talking about. I’m just using that game as an example,” said Pate. “A lot of folks have to play them that aren’t necessarily looking at them right now. You think Oklahoma is looking at that right now and they’re scared of it? They just saw that quarterback leave. He’s coming in there early in the season into Norman – we’re going to be scared of Jackson Arnold? Well, what if they tap into something that you couldn’t last year? Same thing – we talked about Georgia going in there, talked about ‘Bama going in there at the end of the year. ‘Bama fans aren’t worried about The Iron Bowl right now. Maybe you should be? Maybe you will be.”

However, on the negative side, if he doesn’t play well, Arnold could again be one of the reasons that a team’s season goes wrong in the SEC. The Tigers could, at that point, again be looking at an average or losing record for the sixth-straight year while it could also, if it goes poorly enough, end up in the program having a coaching search considering all things.

“If it’s not gonna work, then it’s gonna crash and burn at Auburn this year,” Pate said on the contrary. “If it’s not gonna work, it’s kind of like – well, it’s kinda like Oklahoma was last year. You could have good players elsewhere. In this case, you could have a really good receiver room, or you could have good line of scrimmage talent, you could have decent tailback. If that quarterback doesn’t pan out then they are a five-loss team, six-loss team. Season goes off the rails. Everyone’s talking uncomfortably about Hugh Freeze.”

There’s already pressure on Arnold to be the player that many once expected him to be at the college level. There’s then even more as, to Pate, Arnold’s play could legitimately, at the least, change everything as far as the conference picture in the SEC.

“The point with Auburn, as has been the case many times in the history of that program, is there is such a wild swing of variance in potential outcomes based on one person. It is the quarterback position in sports. That’s the end all, be all about variance,” said Pate. “That is about as wild a swing as you get in college football this year is. You tell me what Jackson Arnold is going to be? Not only could I tell you what Auburn is going to be. I could also tell you, you just fundamentally changed the SEC Championship race.”