Throughout the years, Phil Steele has been the standard of preseason magazines in college football. Previewing every team out there, he provided a forecast for the Duke Blue Devils. Entering Year 2 of head coach Manny Diaz, expectations are high. Steele took the time to give his thoughts on both the offense and defense before […]
Throughout the years, Phil Steele has been the standard of preseason magazines in college football. Previewing every team out there, he provided a forecast for the Duke Blue Devils. Entering Year 2 of head coach Manny Diaz, expectations are high.
Steele took the time to give his thoughts on both the offense and defense before a general overview. A mix of stats and reasoning was given in all three sections.
Duke will begin its season on Aug. 28 against Elon before hosting Illinois in an ACC/Big Ten nonconference game. Until then, you can check out how Steele projects the Blue Devils to fare this year.
Phil Steele’s outlook on Duke offense
For the second consecutive season, Diaz has gone into the NCAA transfer portal for a quarterback. A lot will be put on the shoulders of Darian Mensah after joining the program from Tulane. Steele believes his dual-threat ability will allow the Blue Devils to get the offense to the heights we saw a couple of years ago.
“In 2023, they had 32.6 ppg in the first 5 games but QB (Riley) Leonard was injured and they dropped to 23.4 ppg the last 8, for 26.9 on the season,” Steele said. “Last year, my computer called for 338 ypg and they hit it on the head with 337 ypg and 26.3 ppg. This year, they have a more mobile QB in Darian Mensah and an improved offensive line. They will have a more balanced offense and improve on last year’s numbers.”
Previewing the defense under Manny Diaz
Going from Mike Elko to Diaz meant there would be little drop-off defensively for Duke. Even so, Steele projects the unit to be even better during the 2025 season. Getting more expeirnece inside the system, while bringing back a good amount of starters, all factors into the equation.
“In ’23, they allowed just 353 ypg and 19 ppg! Manny Diaz knows defense but had just five starters back, with the top 5 DL all gone,” Steele said. “Diaz did a great job and Duke allowed just 363 ypg but did have the ppg rise to 24.5 and surprisingly they had 43 sacks! This year, they have seven starters back and bring in some key transfer [who] are more experienced and in the 2nd year of Diaz’s defense. My computer is calling for them to allow 342 ypg and 27.9 ppg.”
Duke overlook heading into 2025 season
Last season saw Steele underrate what Duke could be. His model is telling him to do so once again, saying going 9-3 in the regular season is unlikely. However, the long-time college football analyst is not going to make the same mistake two years in a row.
“This year, Duke is in the Going Down Box for 5 Net Close Wins, 3 Net Upsets, Off YPP and they were 5-3 in ACC play but -55 ypg so Conf YPG,” Steele said. “They just missed the Turnovers=Turnaround (+8). While I expect a drop in record this year, the Blue Devils are a stronger and more experienced team in 2025 and I learned my lesson after underrating them last year.”
Category: General Sports
