Giving Away Money: 2025 Week 5 picks against the spread to enhance your filthy lucre

Week 4: 3-2
2025: 20-8
Mortal Lock: 3-1

I thought we were off to another great week after a 4-1 Thursday and Friday night start, but alas, it was not to be. Oh, it was still pretty good. But we got jacked by four backdoor covers in blowouts, all occurring in the final 2:09 of play — including my personal favorite, UAB getting scoring with :57 left in Knoxville, and then going for two.

Dilfer may be the most fired man in America outside of Billy Napier, but he’s not going down without some petty.

Time for receipts:

Told ya’:

UT San Antonio -5 @ Colorado State
On a neutral field, the Roadrunners are probably the better team (and they certainly have their share of weapons) but the numbers don’t like a cover here…each has strengths that poke right at the heart of the other’s weakness.
Looks like a very narrow road win for the visitors, with the home team covering. But really, this is more a tossup than anything. UTSA -1.8

Verdict? Damn near on the nose: 17-16 UTSA

What the?

Cal -12 @ SD State
…The Aztecs aren’t going to be able to line up and run over the Bears. We warned you about Cal last week (and all season, really). This success is not an illusion.
Cal -14.4

Verdict? This was the most baffling score of the entire weekend. Not only did Cal fail to cover, not only did they lose a road game to the Aztecs, they got blown out and shutout…and in a way no one really expected: they were bulldozed. And for the life of me, I still don’t know how it happened. 34-0 San Diego State

Oh, well. You can’t make the Bears actually take their road games seriously (oooooh, déjà vu). We soldier on.

Here are this week’s selections. All odds courtesy of FanDuel. You know the drill. Half a dozen games — one that good sense should steer you away from or that is too close to call, one we like, one we love, an underdog, a ginormous spread that data still thinks is feasible, and a mortal lock.

Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.

Not With a Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet:

The two biggest games of the week are also two of the most toxic spreads on the board. And you should avoid both of them.

Oregon +3.5 @ Penn State:

PSU has so much god-given talent and wasted potential. And so it shall likely remain in this game. The Ducks homerun potential is what always gives the Nittany Lions fits. Oregon could be the better group by some numbers. And it really comes from play under center: We’re all still waiting for Allar to ever become the player he’s touted to be, but that’s not happened yet, and it likely won’t in this game. It’ll have to be won upfront.

If there’s anything Lanning teams hate, it’s to be punched in the mouth. State will do that; it just needs its defense to hold up their end of the bargain for once. Can you imagine the pressure on James Franklin here? You couldn’t drive a greased needle up his doodie hole with a jackhammer.

Too close to call, even at home in a white out. Oregon +3.25.

‘Bama/Georgia is also as toxic as it comes. Even though the Tide is the better team on paper (-1.17) and the ‘Dawgs are favored at home (-2.5), you should run well away from the SEC’s premier slobberknocker as well. Until KDB can prove that he can consistently win meaningful road games, it’s not worth your money.

One We Like:

New Mexico State +14 @ New Mexico:

The Aggies can’t stop the run, they turn the ball over far too much, they’re one-dimensional, and they’re on the road against a far superior Lobos team who can even trade punches with major conference teams (Ask Michigan if they want to play UNM again…or UCLA). Sometimes it really is that simple: Better defense, punishing running game, home field? This could be closer to three scores than two. And at the risk of jinxing them, do you know who this New Mexico team reminds you of (though less talented)? Barry Odom’s UNLV teams that won with the same brutal logic.

You don’t need to overthink this one: New Mexico 18.3

One We Love:

To be honest, I don’t love anything this week. But we’ll go with a decent one on paper here:

Minnesota -5.5 v Rutgers

We’re giving PJ Fleck the benefit of the doubt in this one. The dude is a spread-covering fool in B1G games at home: about 70%. And, wouldn’t you know, that lines up nicely for the travel-challenged Rutgers Scarlet Knights. To the Scarlet Knights credit, their offense has been worlds better this year, especially throwing the ball. But when you allow 6 YPC to D1 teams, that’s a bad day at the office in the B1G. That’s a double-dose of bitter medicine against a Gophers team that has a 59/41 run/pass play mix and loves to put together methodical, grinding drives.

Ho, hum. Just another routine touchdown sort of home win for the Gophers: UMN -7.1

Underdog With Bite

We’re going out on a limb and rolling with a first year FBS team. Seriously.

Western Kentucky -5.5 @ Missouri State:

By the numbers, we could be looking at an upset. Based on your eyeballs, it wouldn’t be that shocking. The Bears are tough at home and their passing game is going to give the ‘Toppers fits. The only question is whether their defense can hold up. So far they’ve been outstanding for a first year FBS team. MSU has lost just one TO to G5 teams all year. That’s impressive. WKU has been screwing around a whole lot this year with teams they ought not. They can lose this game faster than two shakes of a rattlesnake’s ass

An outright upset could even be in the cards.Mo. State +.9

Ginormous Spread Worth Your Attention

There is actually only one remotely ginormous spread this week, so it shall have to do:

UMass +44 @ Missouri

See that note above re: New Mexico? Apply that to an SEC team hosting one of the three or four worst teams in college football. The much better team with a punishing running game gets it done here. We saw this play out last week in Iowa City too — even the miserable Hawkeyes almost hit half-a-hundred against the Minutemen. Expect Mizzou to keep it simple and do some stat-padding for Ahmad Hardy’s Heisman campaign (which, in fairness, he probably should have earned some votes by now). If the Tigers even pretend to care about this game, they should run over, around, and through UMass.

Mizzou can crabwalk to a 50-point win, if they choose: Tigers -47.3

Mortal Lock

BYU -6.5 @ Colorado

It took four games, but CU finally came full circle and landed on a QB — the same guy they wanted to chase off the field after the season-opener vs. Georgia Tech. Salter’s task doesn’t get easier now that he’s claimed the job. The filthy BYU Cougars come to town. They don’t draw many sacks, but they are averaging a pressure, tackle for loss, or hit on every 1.7 dropback attempt. It’s plainly paying dividends too. The Coogs are surrendering just 5 yards per attempt, have picked off four passes, and are one of just four teams that has yet to allow a TD through the air. For all of Deion’s sputtering about a power running game this year, the Buffs don’t have one; they don’t even try to. They have to win through the air, and do it against a defense that is 8th in the country in turnover margin, and 7th in pass efficiency defense. Nor can Colorado rely on their secret weapon: Altitude. A mile high isn’t going to faze a team that plays 4800 feet above sea level.

I just don’t see it. More importantly, the data don’t see it.

Mormons upend the Hippies -8.06

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Alright, that’s a fork in Week 5. Go forth and prosper, and we’ll see you next week.

Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site:(Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

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