Week 4 NFL Survivor pool strategy with safe, value, trap picks

We’re fast approaching the quarter mark of the 2025-26 NFL season. We’ve got six teams with a 3-0 mark and the Colts are probably the biggest shock of that group given how Daniel Jones is playing. Indy faces a huge test when they travel to face the Rams in Week 4.

Last week saw some wild upsets with most notably the Panthers crushing the Falcons and the Browns shocking the Packers. Both games impacted Survivor pools, with the Packers serving as a particularly popular pick in Week 3.

We’re back for another week of Survivor picks with some safe, value, and trap picks. Last week, my safe Packers pick was a mess, while I managed to successfully warn you about the Falcons. And even the Bucs game turned into a near trap.

On to Week 4 picks!

Safest picks

Bills over Saints
Lions over Browns
Broncos over Bengals

We’ve got three different double digit favorites and I’m comfortable with all three if I want to take the safe route. The Bills and Lions are clearly better. The Broncos have a worse record than the Bengals, but after what Minnesota did to Cincinnati last week, I think the Bengals are going to be regularly picked against as long as Joe Burrow is sidelined.

Best value picks

Texans over Titans

This is a value pick in the sense that now’s a decent time to use the Texans. They won’t have many games where they’re a touchdown favorite. A lot of folks will use them the week, thus removing some value. But for now just focus on your picks and not what everybody else is doing.

Trap picks

Packers over Cowboys

I think the Packers bounce back from that embarrassing loss to the Browns, but I wouldn’t touch them with a ten-foot pole on Sunday Night Football.