NFL Week 4 picks, predictions: A Giant upset vs. Chargers?

Can the New York Giants get the Jaxson Dart era off to an exciting start with an upset of the Los Angeles Chargers? Read what our writers think of that question and the rest of the Big Blue View staff picks for Week 4 of the NFL season below.

Chris Pflum

I’m not going to predict that the Giants win on Sunday. I think a “win” would be the offense being functional — Jaxson Dart playing crisp, poised football in which he calmly goes through his reads and makes good decisions. I expect him to be aggressive, but hope he isn’t reckless. I also want to see the offense actually scheme separation and come prepared for answers for when the defense tries to take Malik Nabers away.

Instead, I’ll be more focused on the defense.

I want to see the secondary hold up against Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Quentin Johnston, and I want to see the Giants’ second- and third-level defenders making solid tackles on Omarion Hampton. Most importantly, I want to see the pass rush get after Justin Herbert. The Chargers have given up the eighth-highest sack rate in the NFL, and the Giants’ defensive front needs to get those numbers up.

I’m less worried about the “win” and “loss” columns and much more interested in the continued development and progress of the players themselves. This is now about 2026 and beyond.

Pick: Chargers

Tony DelGenio

Consider Sunday to be Chargers’ defensive coordinator Jesse Minter’s job application for the 2026 Giants head coaching position. Minter, who worked under Wink Martindale in Baltimore, isn’t as aggressive but likes to use post-snap rotation of coverage, nickel and safety blitzes, and stunts to confuse opposing quarterbacks and offensive lines. If Jaxson Dart finishes Sunday’s game with more TD passes than interceptions be very excited, because this defense is not the recommended way to start an NFL career. On offense, Justin Herbert, always considered an elite quarterback, is now showing why, with victories in hand against two good defenses. Keenan Allen is back and Quentin Johnston is finally learning to catch with his hands instead of his body; do we expect Cor’Dale Flott to be able to handle either of those big receivers? Ladd McConkey out of the slot, who had 8 TDs last season, will go up against Dru Phillips, who is being exposed in pass coverage. The Giants haven’t beaten the Chargers since 1998 and not at home since the 1986 Super Bowl season. Giants fans have fond memories of defeating Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers in the 2011 NFC Championship Game, but don’t expect another fond memory from Dart’s debut.

Pick: Chargers

Nick Falato

I expect the Giants to receive energy with the decision to start Jaxson Dart (and with the season being as young as it is). Still, the Chargers are a well coached, well-run, team with an elite quarterback and defense. I expect the Chargers to be too much for this inexperienced offense.

Pick: Chargers

James Hickey

To quote the rock band on its at least 5th farewell tour, “I won’t get fooled again.” The Giants are stepping up in class when they face the Los Angeles Chargers this Sunday at home. And there is nothing in the first three weeks of this season to say this team is prepared to meet the moment.

Yes, there is excitement about rookie Jaxson Dart being under center. But when you hear the Kurt Warners and Dan Orlovskys of the world detail how unimaginative the offense has been. And that is an issue that precedes Russell Wilson. If even the playbook is open and operates on all cylinders, they are facing one of the best defenses in the league in the Chargers. You know a Jim Harbaugh-coached team is going to make life miserable for a young QB just like they did last week with Denver’s Bo Nix.

The defensive side of the ball has had two decent games and the other where they gave up 40 points. They have yet to make that  turnover or  that key stop that changes the momentum of the game. After seeing a a year-plus of a Shane Bowen defense, there are no signs to suggest that will change this week against an offense led by a quarterback coming into his own in Justin Herbert (his decision to return to Oregon for one more year is a true sliding door for this era of bad Giants football).

As Phil Simms said this week, last Sunday’s game gave the feeling of “here we go again” to Giants fans. This will continue on Sunday.

Pick: LAC 27 Giants 7

David Hartman

A new era dawns for the Giants this Sunday at MetLife Stadium, where 2025 first-round pick Jaxson Dart will make his first career start. The winless Giants face the 3-0 Chargers, so it’s not an ideal spot for a rookie QB’s debut. L.A. has a strong defense at all three levels and has given up just 50 points in three games.

If you’re wondering why the Giants didn’t wait one more week to start Dart (at the winless Saints), well so am I, but that’s a road game so maybe that factored in. You also have a Head Coach and GM who are trying to save their jobs.

I’ve picked against the Giants all three weeks so far, but in each of those games I did see a potential path for them pulling off the upset. That’s harder this week, against a pretty complete Chargers team that has better personnel than the Giants at almost every position. Justin Herbert is playing outstanding ball in the early part of the season and L.A. already has wins over the Chiefs and Broncos.

I’m excited to see Dart play, but can’t in good conscience pick the upset this week. The Giants haven’t shown that they can win.

Pick: Chargers by 10

Valentine’s View

With rookie QB Jaxson Dart making his first NFL start on Sunday, there will likely be a different energy and excitement level at MetLife Stadium. At least when the game begins. In the end, I think the result will be a familiar one.

The Giants are going to lose. For the 15th time in 16 games. They are going to fall to 0-4. They will be 3-18 since the beginning of the 2024 season.

The Chargers have a terrific quarterback in Justin Herbert. They have more pass-catching weapons than the Giants can probably cover. They have an excellent offensive line, though injuries might give the Giants’ pass rush an opening.

Los Angeles has an excellent defense that is fourth in the league in points allowed.

The Chargers have an outstanding, proven head coach who has been successful at a number of stops and has given the Chargers an identity.

The Giants … don’t have those things. They have a quarterback making his first NFL start for an offense that scored fewer than 10 points twice in three games. They have a defense that has underperformed. They have a head coach who has gone from Bono to Bozo and might be running out of time.

The Chargers expect to win. The Giants think maybe they can win … if they get better quarterback play … if they convert more often on third down and in the red zone … if they stop having malfunctions in the kicking game … if they play defense the way they were expected to play defense … if they create some takeaways … if they stop hurting themselves with penalties.

If, in other words, they stop doing the kinds of things bad teams do and start doing the kinds of things good teams do.

I expect the Giants to play with energy and effort on Sunday. I don’t expect the outcome to be anything other than what we have become used to.

Pick: Chargers

Staff pick standings

We are picking moneyline only. After three weeks, here is how the BBV staff is doing picking every game across the league: