2025 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Postseason Game 1

Postseason baseball. What do I do with my spreadsheet that I track H&G on? What does my headline look like? It’s been so long, I don’t remember the answers to these questions. Series creator Russ LaCroix wrote this feature in 2015 and 2016 and so I was pretty new in 2017 the last time the Cubs made more than a cameo in the playoffs. I was still figuring out what I wanted to include and not include in this space. I imagine if I went back and read my writing, I wouldn’t even recognize the writing.

It’s good to be back. This organization should never again go eight years between playoff wins. Shame on the front office for taking so long to get there. This organization simply deploys too many resources to struggle this much. Yes, they could have and probably should have reached the playoffs in 2023, but this is definitely not the time and place to rehash that train wreck. Or to dwell in any of the negative morass of these last eight years.

None of that matters now. The Cubs are back and they are not going to be an easy out as they showed the Padres today. The Padres played well, but they got beat. The Cubs need one more win to earn an all expenses paid trip to Milwaukee. Whew. If that isn’t the worst lottery prize I’ve ever heard of.

But seriously, this might be one of my favorite playoff wins non-World Series or NLCS variety. Nothing can ever replace the World Series or even getting back to the Series after such a long drought. But this now sits with the Arrieta/Pirates game and the Schwarber/Cardinals game. Why? Two big reasons for me. First, as most of you will know, I jumped on this team early this year. I had a feeling and I bought in early. I was in the first few rows of that bandwagon. Second, I bottomed out on Friday (following the Thursday loss). For all of these years, I’ve preached not getting too high or too low.

I pour a lot into this writing, trying to stay in a positive head space: We won? Great. Enjoy it and let’s get back at it. We lost? Turn the page and let’s win tomorrow. Injuries? Next man up. I’ve tried for so long to stay in that space. And I think because I did let myself fall for this team. So the idea of splatting after 162 games is just so nauseating for me. It feels like such a waste. This team is better than that. How do we get some of our biggest guns like Kyle Tucker, Cade Horton and Daniel Palencia all possibly at less than 100 percent right now? Why do these things happen to the Cubs?

Why don’t the Cubs ever overachieve their regular season finish? Why can’t we knock off a team that was legitimately better than us and steal a series? We’ve certainly lost enough games as the hunter to know that the the hunted sometimes fights back. So I spent some time doom spiraling after the team lost for the fifth straight game.

The Padres bullpen. We heard all about it. Yep. They are a nasty bunch. Don’t be trailing late. This series isn’t over and we’re going to be tired of seeing those guys. Guess what? The Cubs bullpen was pretty damn good all year long. They were flat out dominant on a Tuesday afternoon. 14 up and 14 down. Game. Set. Now let’s go get the match.

Pitch Counts:

• Padres: 123, 30 BF (8 IP)
• Cubs: 113, 32 BF

The Padres just trickle into the yellow zone (15-20 PPI) with 15.375 pitches. In this range, you are often flirting with trouble, but an awful lot of games are won in this area, particularly in the modern era. The Cubs check in at 12.55. That’s definitely solid green. Here, teams usually win. Your pitcher might have the opportunity to go deep into the game and you are generally suffocating the other team.

The Padres faced only six batters over the minimum over eight innings. Again, they operated pretty clean. If they don’t allow two homers, they are in a good position to win this game. None of their relievers threw more than 13 pitches. The Padres will bring them all back tomorrow and would certainly try to use them three straight if they need to.

The Cubs faced just five batters over the minimum. This is such a dominating performance from the Cub pitching staff. Boyd was good, the pen was great. None of the relievers threw more than 17 pitches. Hat tip to Palencia getting five outs on just 17 pitches. Palencia threw on back-to-back days 11 times this year. Only twice did he throw as many as 17 pitches and then pitch the next day. Those were May 25-26,and August 19-20. For what it’s worth, both time he converted one-inning saves on the second day. In that second one, he allowed one run against the Brewers. It’ll be real interesting to see if Palencia gets the call again tomorrow. Maybe Colin Rea gets that call in game two?

Stars of the Game:

It’s the postseason, I’m not fixating on a specific number on either end of the spectrum.

• Daniel Palencia. “Five outs” is basically a dirty phrase to Cub fans. Daniel got five outs today to quiet the Padres and allow the game to turn.
• Dansby Swanson. Two different plays that probably saved runs. Then his hustle got the third run and made the ninth a little less scary for a guy who had never pitched in the postseason, much less been asked to close a game against the heart of the Padre order.
• Seiya Suzuki. I called him a mistake crusher the other day. I believe that about him. I don’t mean it as an insult. There are plenty of guys who see the pitcher make a mistake and pop it up or roll one over. To my eye, Seiya saw the biggest mistake Nick Pivetta made all day and Seiya obliterated it. There is a Wrigley phenomenon where the crowd slowly gets restless and doom spirals towards a loss. When Seiya cracked into that, an antsy Cub crowd roared back to life and pushed this team across the finish line.
• Carson Kelly. Gotta go back to back with the hat tips. Seiya’s was a mistake, I thought. A pitch that caught way too much of the zone. Kelly’s? That was exactly where Pivetta had beat the Cubs all day. I laughed watching on TV when the Wrigley faithful went nuts on Kelly’s homer. I’m like, he popped that up. It was up and it’s just too high. That ball is never going to… land comfortably in the third row. Right? Holy cow. I did not think he got it and I did not believe it would carry.
• Brad Keller. Filthy. What a ride for Keller from ‘24 to ‘25. He’s been a revelation in the Cub pen.
• Nico Hoerner. Did you really intentionally walk someone to get to Hoerner with a runner in scoring position? I guess they didn’t believe Hoerner could get a runner home from second. Two hits and an RBI on a separate play. Hey, have I ever mentioned he’s my favorite current Cub?

Postseason Game 1, September 30: Cubs 3, Padres 1 (1-0)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Daniel Palencia (.133). 1.2 IP, 5 BF, 2 K (W 1-0)
• Hero: Andrew Kittredge (.118). IP, 3 BF, K
• Sidekick: Carson Kelly (.117). 1-3, HR, RBI, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Ian Happ (-.144). 0-4, DP
• Goat: Kyle Tucker (-.074). 0-3
• Kid: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.042). 0-3

WPA Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki’s game-tying solo homer leading off the fifth. (.158)

*Padres Play of the Game: Xander Bogaerts’ RBI double in the second inning (and error allowing him to reach third with no outs). (.131)

Top 5 Plays: Suzuki homer. Kelly homer. Bogaerts double. Pivetta induces Happ double play. Boyd induces O’Hearn pop up with first and third one out.

Cubs Player of the Game:

Previous Winner: Javier Assad received 127 of 167 votes.

Up Next: Kittredge will be the first opener in postseason Cub history. I like the move. I like the idea of starting one of the righty relievers and then if he pitches well, Shōta Imanaga throws 4-5 innings before turning it over to the pen. If not, you can mix and match with relievers. There are a lot of innings available for a postseason outing, including Colin Rea who is fully stretched. Dylan Cease is the foe. The Cubs scored three runs in 5.2 innings off work for Cease this year. They had seven hits and a walk off of him. Imanaga allowed two runs, one earned in 12.1 innings against the Padres.

Cease will always be the player I was most disappointed to see traded away. I’m not ecstatic about this matchup, but I do love that small sample size number that is 10 of 12 of these Wild Card series being sweeps so far.