"You start walking people in that lineup and you're asking for trouble.”
LOS ANGELES — There’s nothing appealing about an intentional walk, a strategic act of surrender to potentially escape an unpleasant situation. The Reds were in such dire straits late in Game 2 on Wednesday night against the Dodgers.
Los Angeles was already up five runs in the bottom of the seventh inning, and Cincinnati only had six outs to go on offense to try to make up the deficit. A Miguel Rojas single and Ben Rortvedt sacrifice bunt put a runner in scoring position with one out, capping a productive night for the bottom of the Dodgers lineup, with the 7-8-9 batters totaling six hits and five runs scored.
Right-hander Tony Santillan was pitching for the Reds and due up was Shohei Ohtani, already with three hits and two home runs in the series.
Reds manager Terry Francona was even asked about this type of situation before Game 2, whether he would intentionally walk Ohtani with first base open and runner(s) in scoring position.
“You’re kidding, right? Have you heard of Mookie Betts or Freddie Freeman?” Francona said. “I think it would be a very poor decision. He’s a really dangerous hitter. He also struck out 185 times this year. That’s where we have to get to. You start walking people in that lineup and you’re asking for trouble.”
We can use a run expectancy table to figure out the math of an average situation based on runner(s) on base and number of outs, to determine the average number of runs to expect in the rest of the frame. Back in May at FanGraphs, Ben Clemens took a stab at updating run expectancy tables for recent years. Using 2025 numbers to that point, having a runner on second base with one out leads to an average of 0.67 runs for the rest of the inning. Runners on first and second base with one out leads to 0.96 runs. Using the 2021-24 numbers, a runner on second with one out yields 0.71 runs, and runners on first and second with one out leads to 0.94 runs.
With an intentional walk, you’re putting yourself in a worse spot in hopes of getting a more favorable batter-pitcher matchup or maybe trying to induce a double play. A last-ditch effort of desperation in a rough situation.
We’ve seen this a lot since Ohtani joined the Dodgers, giving them three Hall of Famers atop the lineup instead of three. Dave Roberts in 2024 referred to intentional walks as “picking your poison,” especially with Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman lumped together.
Betts went through the worst slump of his career this season, but rebounded to still be an above-average hitter, just not at the level of Ohtani. Betts understood the choice Francona made, to walk Ohtani and face Betts.
“I wouldn’t let Shohei swing either. I understand. I expect the Phillies to do it. I expect for the rest of the postseason for it to happen,” Betts said. “I understand the situation of the game. So I just gotta be ready to do my thing.”
Betts did in fact do his thing in Game 2. After Ohtani got the free pass, Betts lined a double into the left field corner to score Rojas, giving the Dodgers’ their eighth run of the night. It capped off a four-hit, three-RBI night for Betts, including a Dodgers-record-tying three doubles.
This season, including the playoffs, Ohtani has been intentionally walked 21 times, 18 of them with Betts as the next batter. Betts has six hits, including three doubles in 16 at-bats plus two walks in those situations, with eight runs batted in.
“If there’s a man on base and Shohei’s up, I’m anticipating an intentional walk,” Betts said. “So, if they do, cool, I’ll be ready to go. If they don’t, gotta deal with Shohei. Kind of it is what it is.”
Category: General Sports
