4 areas where the 49ers can take advantage of the Rams

The San Francisco 49ers will be on the road without three of their most important offensive players against a Los Angeles Rams team that is undefeated at home.

At SoFi Stadium, Matthew Stafford has completed over 70 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and zero turnovers. On the other side of the ball, the Rams’ defense is fourth in EPA per play and sixth in success rate allowed. Can Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh do enough to stay competitive, where the offense has the ball last, to have a chance to win?

Let’s discuss what it’ll take for that to happen. First, let’s see how the Rams got here.

Let’s pump the brakes on the home team

The Rams are 3-1, but we don’t have to pretend like they’ve been world beaters through four weeks. They have a +19 point differential compared to the 49ers’ +5 point differential.

Injuries take the cake, but the second-biggest difference between these two teams is the difference in turnovers. The Rams are +3, while the 49ers are -5, which ranks them as the third-worst team in the NFL.

The Rams were down 6-0 for much of the first half to the Houston Texans in Week 1, before a two-minute touchdown. After a Texans field goal before the half, the Rams’ touchdown to begin the third quarter would be the final score in that game. A C.J. Stroud third-quarter interception would be the closest Houston would come to scoring.

Los Angeles’s Week 2 opponent might be the first team to fire its head coach. Their Week 3 opponent won the Super Bowl last year. It was a game Los Angeles controlled on the scoreboard, but it never felt like that while watching it.

Up 26-7, thanks to an Eagles fumble to start the third quarter, Philadelphia needed 2:28 to trim the lead to 26-14. After forcing a three-and-out, the Eagles went on an 87-yard drive, with no play longer than 16 yards, to make it a one-possession game at 26-21.

Kyren Williams was stopped in the backfield on 4th & 1. However, Jalen Hurts was sacked on third down, then threw an incomplete pass to A.J. Brown from midfield, gifting Los Angeles the ball with 12:18 left in the fourth quarter to take a commanding lead.

The Rams had a field goal blocked. The Eagles go down and score in a 17-play, back-breaking 91-yard drive to take a 27-26 lead. Los Angeles gets in position for another field goal, but sees their kick blocked for the second consecutive time for a heartbreaking loss. The reality was they were thoroughly outplayed in the second half.

Last week’s result is why 49ers’ fans should have at least some hope heading into Thursday night. The Colts lost 27-20, despite having an 81 percent win expectancy with four minutes to play. Wide receiver AD Mitchell fumbled the ball out of the end zone and nullified another touchdown late in the fourth quarter with a holding penalty. Those plays cost the Colts 14 points.

Indianapolis also threw an interception in the second half and settled for a field goal in the red zone. Prior to the Rams’ two scoring drives in the fourth quarter, they punted on five straight possessions and fumbled.

Can the Niners find similar success? They’ll need to win these matchups.

Bryce Huff versus Warren McClendon

Los Angeles’s right tackle, Rob Havenstein, is listed as doubtful for Thursday night. That means his backup, 6’4″, 306-pound Warren McClendon, is back in action. Last year, the 2023 fifth-rounder started six games. He was annihilated in pass protection, with 11 blown blocks and five sacks allowed in only 208 snaps.

Matthew Stafford is the type of quarterback who hunts the big play. He has averaged 8.1 air yards per attempt with a deep pass rate of 8.6 percent, all the highest marks during Stafford’s time with the Rams. Unlike last week against Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Rams have no problems calling long-developing plays that ask Stafford to hold onto the ball.

This is a game where Bryce Huff comes alive. Huff is eighth in the NFL in win percentage among all defensive linemen. He had a couple of wins last week, but the ball came out so quickly that he was unable to register a quarterback hit or a sack. That’ll be different tonight against a backup right tackle.

Sam Okuayinonu is another edge rusher to keep an eye on. He’s played his role to perfection. He’s actually been better at generating pressure on early downs than any other pass rusher on the team, while Huff does most of his work on third downs. That duo must make life miserable for McClendon for four quarters, thus making Stafford uncomfortable and potentially prone to mistakes.

Christian McCaffrey and Jake Tonges vs. the Rams linebackers and safeties

The Rams have gone to great lengths to upgrade their defensive line. They are still relatively weak in the back seven, specifically right down the middle. Every team that Los Angeles has played has attacked them the most right down the spine.

The Colts went after Kamren Curl six times and Nate Landman four times. The Eagles went after Quinten Lake seven times. The Titans targeted Curl six times in Week 2, while Landman and Lake were targeted four times each. Curl was targeted five times in Week 1, allowing all five targets to be completed.

Some of it is Kyle Shanahan’s scheme, but Tonges has been a pleasant surprise. He had 58 yards last week, and that could’ve easily been in the 80s. He’s been a reliable target for whichever quarterback has been under center. Tonges, 6’4″, against Curl, 6’1″, could be a matchup Mac Jones targets early and often, with the Rams being a tight end funnel defense.

No player has been used as much through four weeks as Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey has the fourth-highest target rate of any pass catcher in the NFL. This should be a game where the 49ers’ ground game gets going, but McCaffrey out of the backfield has been the free square on the bingo card whenever he’s on the field.

The immovable running game versus a below-average run defense

If there was ever going to be a game where Shanahan attempts to get the running game going, it’ll be against a Rams defensive line that would prefer to pin its ears back and rush the passer instead of stopping the run. The Rams are 20th in the NFL in EPA per rush allowed. It’s their biggest weakness on the team.

This will be Colton McKivitz’s biggest test to date, as he’ll see Jared Verse. Defensive tackle Poona Ford has helped the interior. The Rams are 0.9 yards per carry better with Ford on the field. However, this is not a team that stops you in the backfield or at the line of scrimmage.

The Rams are second-to-last in the NFL in defensive stuff rate at 9.9 percent. That tells me their line is getting in the way, and the linebackers aren’t making plays. That bodes well for McCaffrey and a 49ers running game that’s been putrid to date.

The offensive line has done its job. It’s the wide receivers and tight ends that are whiffing, and doing so consistently. When the scheme isn’t the issue and it comes down to player execution, it makes me think the 49ers are closer to breaking a long run, or at least having a decent outing on the ground, than the opposite outcome.

Bold prediction: McCaffrey rushes for a season high on Thursday night and the most yards against the Rams defense this season. Part of that prediction is personnel-driven, as Los Angeles tends to favor more defensive backs on the field.

Shrinking the field on defense

The 49ers have forced two turnovers, but are one of two teams not to have an interception this year. The other team is the Jets. You never, ever, want to be in the same sentence with the Jets. Will that change in Week 5? Stafford has turned it over twice, with both interceptions happening on the road.

The 49ers’ beefy defensive line should be able to slow down a Rams running game that is middling. Where the 49ers have excelled the most on defense is limiting the big play. They have the fifth-best explosive play rate in the NFL. On most of the big plays the defense has surrendered, it’s been against rookie Marques Sigle.

Sigle and Upton Stout will likely be the most targeted players tonight. Sigle has been targeted on downfield passes seven times this season. He’s allowed all seven of those to be completed for 153 yards and a touchdown. Stafford has 623 passing yards on downfield throws, which leads the league by 79 yards.

In fairness to Sigle, he’s been in position on every one of those plays. It’s not as if he’s getting burned by the opponent. Still, he hasn’t made the play. Stout appeared to have made one last week, but the referees thought otherwise.

I don’t expect Robert Saleh to give the Rams an opportunity to get Puka Nacua or Davante Adams 1-on-1 chances. The 49ers have run zone coverage 78 percent of the time this year. Davante Adams sees his target rate drop nearly 13 percent against zone coverage. That will allow Saleh to put extra eyes on Puka, something Saleh did against Marvin Harrison a couple of weeks ago.

I’d expect Saleh to live and die with Renardo Green losing outside of the numbers 1-on-1 on a low percentage throw to Adams on occasion. That was the case against the Saints. The goal is to help everybody else and effectively shrink the field.

That’s how the 49ers come away victorious, by shrinking the field, forcing Stafford into 3rd & long situations, and making the Tutu Atwells of the world beat you. It’s easier said than done. Puka is rarely stationary. He’s often lined up in a way that makes it difficult to defend him with one defender, let alone two. But that’s the challenge Saleh faces.

Don’t be surprised if the 49ers are fiesty tonight, and this game is closer than many expect.