🇮🇹 Italy’s play-off draw: Sweden a threat, all possible rivals ⚠️

If Italy manages to beat Israel, they will be mathematically in the playoffs to reach the 2026 World Cup, given that 1st place seems firmly occupied by Norway.

But if the Azzurri reach the playoffs, who could they face in the semifinal and possibly in the final? Let's look at the current situation.

Who would Italy face in the semifinal? Sweden at 25%

The playoff phase, which includes a semifinal and then the final, will feature:

• 12 group runners-up from the European qualifiers.
• 4 best Nations League group winners who did not qualify directly.

The teams brought in from the Nations League, as of today, are:

• Wales (in doubt)
• Sweden
• Romania
• Moldova

One of these four national teams could be Italy’s opponent in the semifinal. However, the list can change: if any of them finishes 1st or 2nd in their qualifying group, they will give up their place to another team.

The only team in doubt is Wales, who are competing for the top of Group J with Belgium and North Macedonia. Meanwhile, on this list will be: Sweden (last in Group B), Romania (3rd in Group H) and Moldova (last in Group I).

Possible playoff final: against whom?

If Italy qualifies for the playoffs, they would be in Pot 1 thanks to the ranking and (as mentioned) would meet a Nations League entrant in the semifinal. This means they would play:

• Home semifinal against a team brought in from the Nations League.
• The possible final against one of the winners from Pot 2 or Pot 3.

But which teams are currently in Pot 2 and Pot 3 that could face Italy in a hypothetical playoff final?

CURRENT POT 3:

• Poland
• Czech Republic
• Hungary
• Scotland

CURRENT POT 4:

• Albania
• Northern Ireland
• Bosnia and Herzegovina
• Kosovo

The standings, however, are subject to many changes for various reasons: we need to see which teams finish 2nd in the groups and, once the standings are confirmed, the pots will be drawn up based on the ranking.

Who Italy cannot face (for now)

Italy will not be able to face the teams in Pot 1, which at the moment are:

CURRENT POT 1:

• Belgium
• Italy
• Turkey
• Ukraine

The standings are subject to change, as Belgium are fighting for the top of their group, while Turkey and Ukraine are battling for 2nd place against Iceland and Georgia.

Obviously changes in the standings would also modify Pots 3 and 4 based on the ranking. Example: if Georgia or Iceland finish 2nd, all the pots would have to be recalculated.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.

📸 ANDREAS SOLARO - AFP or licensors