Get the best Bills vs. Falcons predictions ahead of Monday's prime-time matchup in Atlanta. Free NFL picks for October 13.
The first game of the Monday night doubleheader will feature a wounded Buffalo Bills squad heading on the road to face the rested Atlanta Falcons.
With a possible bump in usage, coupled with a great passing environment, Kyle Pitts headlines my Bills vs. Falcons predictions.
Read more in my NFL picks for October 12, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
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Bills vs Falcons prediction
Bills vs Falcons Best bet: Kyle Pitts Over 3.5 receptions (-115)
The Buffalo Bills are looking to bounce back after a prime-time loss, but the Atlanta Falcons — rested off a bye — aren’t an easy out.
This game is indoors, which typically boosts passing efficiency, and Michael Penix Jr. looked sharp in Week 4. With Kyle Pitts possibly more involved this week, it’s time to take another look at Atlanta's tight end.
Pitts is quietly seeing nearly a 20% target share and is lining up in the slot or out wide on 74% of snaps — more like a wide receiver than a traditional tight end. He’s coming off a 5-catch, 70-yard, 1-TD performance on just five targets and has hit his Over on this reception prop in every game so far.
An indoor matchup at home shouldn't hurt those numbers, and a possible absence for Bills linebacker Matt Milano — who plays a key role in covering tight ends — only strengthens the case. Also worth noting: WR2 Darnell Mooney has yet to practice this week, a bad sign coming off a bye.
Pitts' anytime TD price at +220 or better is appealing, but the real value is in his reception prop. If the Falcons are trailing and Mooney is sidelined, it's hard to see Pitts not clearing a modest receptions total.
Bills vs Falcons MNF same-game parlay
Both coaches discussed this week the importance of not getting "too cute" and focusing on execution over gimmicks.
That sounds like a game that sets up with a lot of running and getting the tight ends involved. Both Pitts and Dalton Kincaid could be the No. 2 options in the passing game Monday night, and near the goal line is where they can earn their pay.
Nothing too fancy here, just two talented TEs to find paydirt in a game with a 50-point total at big odds.
Bills vs Falcons SGP
- Kyle Pitts anytime touchdown
- Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Non-WR Profit Play
Let's add the two best backs on both teams to this TD parlay and push those odds to +3400.
Buffalo will need to reset after last week, and James Cook will be more involved.
Meanwhile, Bijan Robinson might be the second-best running back in football, and he will get all he can handle Monday night.
Bills vs Falcons SGP
- Kyle Pitts anytime touchdown
- Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown
- James Cook anytime touchdown
- Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown
Bills vs Falcons odds
- Spread: Buffalo -4.5 (-110) | Atlanta +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Buffalo -230 | Atlanta +190
- Over/Under: Over 50.0 (-110) | Under 50.0 (-110)
Bills vs Falcons betting trend to know
Although he has appeared in just two games vs. the Falcons, Josh Allen's 42.3% completion rate against Atlanta is the worst of any team he has played. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Falcons.
How to watch Bills vs Falcons
| Location | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Monday, October 13, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Category: Football
