He’s a good player, but this move is difficult to parse.
In a series of events that developed fast enough to give fans whiplash, the Mets went from missing on Kyle Tucker to inking Bo Bichette less than 24 hours later. The 27-year-old shortstop spurned a long-term deal from the Phillies to sign an extremely player-friendly deal in New York; three years, $126 million, and—most critically—opt-outs after both year one and year two.
You’re no doubt familiar with Bichette, if for nothing other than his nearly-series-defining home run in last year’s World Series. Outside of that moment, he’s been one of the better shortstops in baseball since debuting in 2019, posting a cumulative 120 wRC+ and cresting 3.8 fWAR in all but one season. The one outlier—2024—was an injury plagued year in which Bichette struggled with a calf injury. He’s a good player, at times bordering on a great one, and you usually want to add that kind of guy when you can.
At the same time, Bichette’s profile is not typical. Ten years ago, we’d have looked at the top of the scale swing rates and ~10th percentile chase rates and flatly said that Bichette’s approach is problematic. Now we can recognize that he does a good enough job of swinging at the pitches he can damage such that his overall approach is broadly fine (as measured by SEAGER). Similarly, we might’ve assumed his high BABIP was unsustainable, and his offense as a result was fake. Now we have batted ball data that largely backs up his outlier ability to find open grass.
Even with that better understanding, you can see the warts. It’d be better if Bichette swung and chased less. It’d be better if he pulled the ball in the air more than 6.8% of the time. It’s also great that he’s a young free agent, but his exit velocities have already begun to decline, both in terms of max EV and 90th percentile. The recent history of lower body injuries—the aforementioned calf problems and a wonky knee injury last season—are concerning as well. We’ve also not mentioned the defense, which has gone from bad at shortstop to unplayable. Not a direct problem for the Mets of course, but something that should be noted.
Perhaps you’re more optimistic about the above, which is valid. The roster fit, however, is undeniably odd. Prior to this move, the Mets had a solid starting infield—Baty, Lindor, Semien, Polanco left to right—and an obvious hole in the outfield. Now, Bichette is slated to play a position he’s never played before (he’ll probably be fine there) while Baty has been bumped into a super utility role. It’s an odd allocation of resources, one that diminishes the net impact of the move.
The cost here could be described as anything from “high” to “astronomical.” We already mentioned the contract terms, but here’s what that actually translates to:
- $42 million in direct salary for 2026
- $30-35 million in CBT penalties
- 2nd and 5th highest selections in the 2026 draft, worth something like $1.5-2 million in pool space
- $1 million in IFA
On top of that, the opt-out structure gives the Mets all the downside and none of the upside. If Bichette has a good season, demonstrating that his knee is healthy and he can play another position well, he opts out for a bigger deal as a 28-year-old free agent with no QO attached. If the injuries linger or if the defensive decline is not ameliorated by the move down the spectrum, the Mets are left holding the bag.
Our view on this move might change when we get to the end of the offseason and consider the totality of moves. Maybe Baty gets traded for a big-name player (Jarren Duran, Tarik Skubal, and Cole Ragans are some options). Maybe another starter and/or outfielder gets added and Baty becomes a valuable super-utility guy in the mold of Jeff McNeil. Right now, though, this looks like a very expensive move that doesn’t align at all with the roster’s needs.
We’d also be remiss if we didn’t discuss the narrative surrounding this deal. It sure seemed like the Mets were confident that they were going to get Kyle Tucker, or at least Steve Cohen’s tweet suggested that. Objectively, declining to give Tucker the highest AAV ever is a fine baseball decision; subjectively, acting like you’ve got a player in the bag and then coming up second (not the first time this has happened, either) makes you something of a laughing stock, particularly when you’re loud about it.
It’s dangerous to assume that we know more than a front office that is regarded as one of the more forward thinking in baseball. Nevertheless, even with a healthy amount of self-doubt and a good deal of squinting, this looks like a move that is imperfect at best and panicky at worst. The Bichette signing receives a C-.
Category: General Sports
