ESPN’s Jeff Passan explains why Tarik Skubal could win a record $32 million in arbitration over the Tigers’ $19M offer, citing Cy Young history and elite performance.
The Detroit Tigers and Tarik Skubal are staring at a number that has never existed in an arbitration hearing before.
Skubal’s side filed at $32 million for the 2026 season. The Tigers countered at $19 million. That $13 million spread is not just large, it’s unprecedented. No arbitration case in MLB history has featured anything close to that kind of gap, and no player has ever been awarded a salary anywhere near $32 million through the process.
Yet, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, history may be about to bend.
Passan’s Case for Why Skubal Deserves Every Dollar
Passan’s argument centers on one simple truth: Skubal isn’t just elite, he’s in rare, historic territory.
As Passan wrote:
“Even if the comparables are in Detroit’s favor, even if a $32 million award would smash the previous high awarded in a room by more than $12 million, Skubal is the first American Leaguer to win consecutive Cy Young Awards since Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000.”
That kind of resume changes how cases are viewed. Passan continued:
“And in a world where lesser pitchers get $30 million-plus a season and Skubal can compare his salary to any in MLB, his performance, the best pitcher in baseball — will be enough to carry the day.”
In other words, precedent matters, but dominance matters more. Skubal’s back-to-back Cy Youngs place him in a category that very few pitchers in modern history have ever occupied.
Why Arbitration Is Still a Gamble
Even with logic, numbers, and awards on his side, Passan made it clear that nothing is guaranteed in the arbitration room.
“Arbitration hearing rooms are notorious for their unpredictability,” Passan wrote. “Lawyers who have argued cases have left the room convinced they’d made airtight arguments — and lost. Others were despondent in the aftermath, certain of defeat, and emerged victorious.”
He added:
“Which is to say that whatever approach Tarik Skubal’s team takes in trying to convince a three-person panel that he’s worthy of the $32 million he’s seeking instead of the $19 million the Detroit Tigers are offering, the ultimate result is a crapshoot.”
That uncertainty is what makes this case so fascinating — and potentially historic.
What It Means for Detroit’s Relationship With Its Ace
Beyond the legal drama, this standoff sends a message. Skubal is the face of the franchise, the best pitcher in baseball, and the foundation of Detroit’s contention window. Filing at $19 million while he seeks $32 million creates a tension that goes far beyond one season’s paycheck.
Whether the panel sides with Skubal or the Tigers, the outcome will ripple into future extension talks, trade rumors, and how the organization is viewed by its own superstar.
One way or another, Skubal will take the mound in 2026 as a Cy Young winner. The only question is whether he’ll do it as the most highly paid arbitration player in MLB history.
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Category: General Sports
