What does the Friars’ future hold?
The arrival of pitchers and catchers is less than a week away in Peoria, Ariz., but the Friar Faithful have concerns about the makeup of the 2026 San Diego Padres. They feel Padres president of baseball operations and general manager A.J. Preller’s hands are tied when improving the roster because of a bloated payroll.
San Diego is bracing for a new owner, as the Seidler family announced following the conclusion of the World Series that the franchise was going to be put on the market for sale. Well, the first hurdle has been cleared toward a potential sale.
Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (subscription required) reported that the bulk of the lawsuit brought against Matthew and Robert Seidler by their sister-in-law, Sheel Seidler, has been settled.
So, why the lack of player movement this winter?
Let’s not forget that the Seidler family stated they’re all-in to improve the roster for the 2026 season, but the moves must make sense. In other words, we are not signing another big-name free agent or trading for high-salary players that diminish the franchise’s sale price. The team’s quiet offseason confirms that Preller had limited options on how he could improve the roster.
Analyzing the Padres’ 2026 payroll
Before moving forward, we must look back. The Padres paid just under $7 million in luxury tax, as last season’s payroll was over $270 million. The odds are good that Preller will come close to this number by season’s end.
Currently, the Friars’ 2026 luxury tax payroll is just under $260 million, as nine players will make over $11 million, and five in this group will be paid over $20 million this season.
Here are the Padres’ luxury tax payroll for 2026 (According to Spotrac)
- Manny Machado: $31 million
- Xander Bogaerts: $25.4 million
- Michael King: $25 million
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: $24.2 million
- Joe Musgrove: $20 million
- Yu Darvish: $18 million
- Jackson Merrill: $15 million
- Nick Pivetta: $13.7 million
- Jake Cronenworth: $11.4 million
As you can see, more than $182 million is committed to these nine players, and four of them (Machado, Bogaerts, Tatis Jr., and Merrill) are contractually obligated to play through the 2032 season. The above financial numbers represent the average annual value (AAV), which is the dollar figure of a player’s salary for each year of their contract.
What does the future hold?
A salary cap will not stop baseball’s offseason spending spree. Often, franchises rebound from being rebuffed by a top free agent to overpay for a less talented player. It is just the nature of the business, as few teams walk away from the buying process to stand pat for next season. You either pivot to your next option or risk the pack moving past your club in the chase for a postseason berth.
Does the trade market become a viable option for Preller once again? He has used this path to acquire talent at the last two trade deadlines. The Rockstar GM was not afraid to deal the organization’s top prospect, Leodalis De Vries, for a young, controllable power arm named Mason Miller. The move helped the Padres claim a postseason berth last season.
Yes, Preller did refrain from partaking in this winter’s free agent sweepstakes. But the recent signing of Marco Gonzales and Miguel Andujar are low-risk, high-reward deals that improve the depth on the 40-man roster.
The Friars projected payroll for 2027 and beyond
- 2027: $221.1 million
- 2028: $197.5 million
- 2029: $132 million
- 2030: $132.5 million
Potentially, the Padres will gain some financial wiggle room with expiring contracts and player opt-out clauses. Ramon Laureano will be eligible to become a free agent, and the club has an option on Kyle Hart following the 2026 season. Approximately $40 million is coming off the books, as Preller will have some flexibility to retool the roster.
King has a player option for the 2027 and 2028 seasons, but it will not be a simple decision for him. If he chooses to opt out, King would be walking away from $58 million over the life of the deal.
Yes, there are questions surrounding the health of his right arm that will always be there for the media to debate. I would not be surprised if a contract extension that keeps King in San Diego for the remainder of his playing career occurs after the sale of the franchise. King is too vital to the Padres’ future.
Friar Faithful favorite Joe Musgrove is eligible to become a free agent after the 2027 season. His production on the mound over the next two seasons will determine if the organization will offer another contract to him. If not, the Padres will have $20 million to entice an attractive free agent to come to San Diego.
Preller and company are committed to contending for a postseason berth in 2026. However, the financial resources to make in-season trades might be limited, but the outlook looks good in 2027 and beyond.
The Friar Faithful need to be patient, but that is not easy.
Category: General Sports
