What do Drake Maye & Stefon Diggs have as an encore for Buffalo Bills?

The New England Patriots are 11-2 and in first place in the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills are 9-4 and in second place in the AFC East. If New England beats Buffalo on Sunday, they clinch the AFC East Division title. If the Bills beat the Patriots, they delay New England’s ability to clinch, keeping the door ajar ever so slightly for a sixth-straight AFC East title to remain in Orchard Park, NY.

The breakdown above might be simplistic, but it’s also true. A three-turnover performance in October that dropped the Bills to 4-1 and pushed New England to 3-2 on the season is the reason why the Patriots have the tiebreaker, as New England beat Buffalo 23-20 in the first week of October. If Buffalo wants to repeat as division champs again, then Sunday is a must-win.

How can the Bills secure a victory over New England? They’ll need to shut down some of the Patriots’ top players in order to do so. Here are five Patriots to watch this Sunday against Buffalo.
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QB Drake Maye

Buffalo’s defense looks a bit different this time around, as they’ll have Shaq Thompson starting in place of Terrel Bernard, Jordan Poyer starting in place of Taylor Rapp, and Maxwell Hairston rotating in with Tre’Davious White. Those three tweaks to the defense should be welcome additions for the Bills, and they’ll need any help they can muster against Maye, who played out of his mind on Sunday Night Football back in October. Maye was 22-of-30 for 272 yards on the night, and while he didn’t throw a touchdown pass, he also didn’t make a mistake. Maye was took four sacks, but he made so many plays outside of the pocket by using his legs and keeping his eyes downfield.

Buffalo needs to have a better plan to keep Maye hemmed up inside the pocket, and if he does roll out, they need to treat him like teams treat their own quarterback, Josh Allen, and devise a plan to prevent him from rolling to his right. Giving Maye some strange pre-snap looks is a must, as they can create some mistakes if they force him to hold the ball and force it late.

All of this is easier said than done, as Maye has shown himself to be a franchise-level quarterback in his second season. Buffalo needs to mix their coverages and stay aggressive.

RB TreVeyon Henderson

Buffalo’s run defense has been much better of late, and it’s been especially good when veteran Shaq Lawson has stepped in for usual starter Terrel Bernard at middle linebacker. Thompson is likely to start again this week, and the Bills will need to be sound in their run defense yet again.

Early in the season, Henderson’s lack of usage was baffling, as most people viewed him as a dynamic playmaker who could be a much more explosive player than Rhamondre Stevenson. Well, over the last six games, Henderson has gained 472 yards rushing and 100 yards receiving, totaling five touchdowns and 5.6 yards per touch.

Buffalo has allowed 120 rushing yards total in their last two games, as neither the Pittsburgh Steelers (18 carries for 58 yards) or the Cincinnati Bengals (19 carries for 62 yards) could do much on the ground. If the Bills can take away New England’s rushing attack, keeping the Patriots behind the sticks, then they can really home in on Drake Maye and the passing game. They’ll need to start by stopping Henderson on early downs and fitting their run gaps effectively.

WR Stefon Diggs

What else is there to say after the former Bill torched Buffalo for 10 grabs, 146 yards, and a whole lot of bear-crawl celebrations in the last meeting between these two teams? Buffalo knows what Diggs is about, and they know that he loves drama, loves using even the slightest slight to fuel the massive chip on his shoulder.

Most of his damage is going to be done out of the slot, as the Patriots would be insane to play him outside if Christian Benford, who was limited in practice Thursday due to a toe injury, is a full go. That means he’ll be operating against defensive backs Taron Johnson, and Cam Lewis, with a sprinkle of Jordan Hancock in there for good measure.

Honestly, the best bet for Buffalo might be to treat Diggs like New York Giants defensive coordinator Bill Belichick treated Andre Reed in Super Bowl XXV. Every time he touches the ball, the Bills need to hit him hard to make him question going back over the middle. Sure, they can’t hit him like it’s 1991 anymore, but they can have a safety bearing down on Diggs to make him question going over the middle.

Leaving him one-on-one all night with Johnson or Lewis feels like a recipe for disaster, and bracketing a player in the slot is difficult to do. Match-zones could help keep eyes on the quarterback, as well as eyes on No. 8.

[Starting Left Tackle]

The franchise cornerstone, rookie Will Campbell, is out due to a right knee injury. The backup, Verdarian Lowe, has been limited in practice all week thanks to an abdominal injury. According to the team’s unofficial depth chart, that means that Thayer Munford Jr. could be in line to start the game.

If the Pats are down to a third-string tackle, the Bills need to take advantage. Sending additional rushers, creating pressure via simulated looks, stunts, and twists, and bringing rushers off the edge are all possible ways to confuse, harass, and defeat a protection plan.

The Patriots will almost certainly try to mitigate the issue by chipping off the left side and moving the pocket to Maye’s right, but the Bills can blow those plans up with a solid rush plan. Attacking the weak link is a good start.

CB Marcus Jones

Christian Gonzalez is the obvious star of the defensive secondary, as he usually has the job of locking down the opposing team’s best wideout. Carlton Davis starts outside, and he receives plenty of accolades, as well.

Jones, though, mostly receives his flowers for being an elite punt returner. While those accolades may come for good reason (his 14.6 yards per return average is the best all-time), he’s also developed into quite a good nickel corner. In the last meeting, he came from North Tonowanda to intercept a Josh Allen pass in the red zone, undercutting Khalil Shakir and shutting down a would-be scoring drive.

Jones isn’t someone to trifle with on the offensive end for the Bills, as he has career-bests this season in interceptions (3) and pass breakups (11). Where he is at a disadvantage, though, is in the red zone, as his diminutive frame (he’s just 5’8”) is part of the reason he’s allowed six touchdowns on the season.

If the Bills can find ways to put their tight ends up against Jones, then look out — it’s a huge mismatch in Buffalo’s favor. If he’s roaming the middle in zone coverage, though, he’s much faster than all of Buffalo’s wideouts, so he is someone who can flip a game just like he did in the first meeting. If the Bills run at him and try to isloate Dalton Kincaid or Dawson Knox on him, they’re in good shape.