I had fun with that title.
It is not hard to see why the Phillies paid Kyle Schwarber. He’s the leader inside their clubhouse, hit 56 home runs, and finished 2nd in MVP voting. Despite his age, at least two other clubs offered him either five years or 30 million dollars per season.
With that said, his contract is going to be fascinating to look back on because of the bet the Phillies are making. At $30 million in AAV over 5 seasons, the expectation is not only for Schwarber to be good right away but to maintain that same production late into his career. Given that he is a clubhouse leader and budding franchise icon, there is no giving up on him before the deal expires, either. He’s going to be a Phillie for five more years, almost no matter how good or bad he performs.
As Jayson Stark on The Athletic pointed out, we have never seen a DH get this kind of contract and Schwarber’s age is an added wrinkle into that.
Assuming Schwarber’s age 33 and 34 seasons go how we expect, 40+ home runs, .230 or better, and a wRC+ between 135-145, let’s think about the final three years of this contract.
There are a few potential avenues this could go down. Over the last decade, there have been 37 players who got at least 800 plate appearances between the ages of 35-37. Here are a few of the DH/First Base and their wRC+’s types in that span:
- Nelson Cruz: 143
- Yuli Gurriel: 123
- JD Martinez: 120
- Joey Votto: 117
- Edwin Encarnación: 115
- Mark Teixeira: 110
- Paul Goldschmidt: 109
- Miguel Cabrera: 104
- Victor Martinez: 101
- Albert Pujols: 101
- Ryan Howard: 89
The exception here is Nelson Cruz, whose ridiculous raw power and bat speed allowed him to be a productive hitter into his age 40 season with the Twins in 2021. Another player who carries top tier raw power and bat speed? Kyle Schwarber.
But the trend is that these players decline in offensive production late into their careers, which is not something the Phillies can afford from a $30 million a year designated hitter. If Schwarber is Edwin Encarnación caliber in those years, that’s not going to sit well. That’s the kind of standards this contract warrants.
Schwarber’s contract has redefined the value of a top-tier pure-DH on the open market. If his deal ends up working, that’s going to be the asking price for other DHs in the future. If not? The contract will look like a unique albatross.
The Rockies Should Sign Max Kepler
The Colorado Rockies hired Paul DePodesta as their President of Baseball Operations then made Josh Byrnes their general manager. Many people have discussed the good and bad that has come with these hires, mainly DePodesta and what he did with the Cleveland Browns, but if they are looking for cheaper ways to raise the floor of their roster, Max Kepler is a good answer.
The Max Kepler experience was mostly not a good one in Philadelphia. He was a replacement-level player who did not get to play his natural position until mid-August and finished with a 90 wRC+. However, there are reasons to believe a match in Colorado could work.
The Rockies could use his glove in the outfield. While Brenton Doyle is a fantastic defensive center fielder, the Coors field outfield is massive and they did not get enough defensive production in right field. Mickey Moniak was a great story as an offensive player with the Rockies but in 510 innings in right field, he had -12 defensive runs saved and -6 outs above average. Moniak is probably best as a DH for them in 2026.
Kepler’s offensive profile might be easier to unlock at high altitude in Colorado. Outside of low-spin, high velocity four-seam fastballs and gyro sliders, pitching in Coors is nearly impossible.
Against four-seam fastballs last season, Kepler hit .222 with a .476 slug and had a .402 xwOBA. Against breaking pitches, he hit only .200 with a .338 slug and a .260 xwOBA. Going to an environment where pitches can’t attack him with spin over and over again might allow the Rockies to unlock a gem.
Building a winner in Coors seems incredibly hard but looking for players with an extremely weird profile is one way to start. I’m not sure Kepler is a great option for the Kansas City Royals but he might be the kind of player that unlocks a lot more value in Colorado.
Category: General Sports
