All-Star first baseman Matt Olson is due for a big year in 2026.

Olson is coming off of one of his best years, smashing 29 homers, driving in 95 RBIs and having a slash line of .272/.366/.484 -- good for an .850 OPS. 

Olson's .850 OPS was 4th in the MLB amongst first basemen, but his 6.1 WAR placed first, still displaying his elite glove on defense. 

Heading into year 11, the expectation for Olson is to continue being one of the best hitters not just at his position, but in all of baseball. 

Olson's 112 home runs since the start of 2023 ranks 7th in the entire MLB, and 2nd amongst first basemen only behind Pete Alonso. 

After winning the 2021 World Series, former Atlanta first baseman Freddie Freeman elected to not resign with Atlanta, instead joining the Los Angeles Dodgers, creating a void at first base.

On March 14, 2022, Atlanta acquired Olson from the Oakland Athletics via trade for a package of outfielder Cristian Pache, catcher Shea Langeliers, and right-handed pitchers Ryan Cusick and Joey Estes. 

During Olson's Atlanta tenure, he has hit 146 home runs while driving in a team high 435 RBIs since the start of 2022. Olson is one of, if not the best hitter on Atlanta's roster. 

Olson's Projected 2026 Season (Via Fangraphs)

Games Played: 159 

Plate Appearances: 686

Home Runs: 32

Batting Average: .256

On Base Percentage: .349

Slugging Percentage: .478

WRC+ : 129

wOBA: .355

WAR: 3.4

Although Fangraphs expects Olson to regress in 2026, I have to disagree with their model. 

In 2025, Olson was in the 95th percentile in batting run value and 89th percentile in fielding run value, further displaying his elite production as a hitter and defender. Even if Olson has a down year offensively, his elite defense will keep him amongst the top of first basemen in the league. 

Even though Olson's 2025 campaign wasn't as good as prior years, he was still elite in many advanced metrics. 

Olson is in the 86th percentile in xSLG, 95th percentile in average exit velocity, 89th percentile in barrel percentage, 95th percentile in hard hit percentage, and 89th percentile in walk rate, further presenting why Olson is still one of the league's best hitters. 

I expect Olson's elite bat and defense to help lead Atlanta back to the postseason for the first time since 2023. 

However, the question remains as to whether or not Olson can reach the level of production he displayed in 2023 in 2026.